“Thunderbolts*” Bolts To The Top - Week 1

We went one year without a Marvel movie opening the Summer Blockbuster Pool and what a sad May we had without it in 2024. It started with a mere $27.7 debut for The Fall Guy. Thankfully, the MCU has started cranking films out again (well, opinions may vary on the “thankfully” part), but at least we started with more of a “bang” this year. 

Thunderbolts* kicked off the season with a $74.3 million opening weekend. That’s much higher than last May’s selections of The Fall Guy, Something About Something of the Planet of the Apes, IF, and Quiet Place: Even Quieter. That’s the good news!

The “you’ve been warned” news is that the opening weekends of the last MCU films released in the summer have been Dr. Strange 2’s $187 million, Thor: 4’s $144 million, Gaurdians 3’s $118 million, and Deadpool & Wolvie’s $211 million. The Thunderbolts* debut is more in line with Black Widow’s $80 million start in July 2021 and that finished with $180 million. Is this where we Gulp, Big Gulp, or Double Gulp?

Even this year’s thud Captain America: Brave New World opened with $88 million and found a way to finish with $200 million. Can word of mouth and the replacing of that asterisk to a new title for the film change the box-office momentum of the film? Absolutely! Am I mostly telling myself that because I had this film as #4 on my Top Five list? Absolutely! 

Besides, there’s nothing major being released this weekend, so Thunderbolts* has another week to play before the Memorial Day Massacre begins with Ethan Hunt’s impossible mission to stop Lilo & Stitch. West Chesapeake Valley Thunderbolts, Assemble!

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Thunderbolts* - $74.6 million

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition, here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out, and certainly terrible 2025 Summer Movie Pool prognostications. 

The Didn’t Make Its: Elio (no clue what it is or how it’ll do), Live-Action Dragon (is it too scary, too good, too the same, idk), and the hardest omission Mission: Impossible (the series is a family fave, yet the last one finished with $170 million and I think that’s not enough for the Top Five this year). BTW, on a scale of “totally got this” vs. “shaking in my boots,” I’m jump scaring myself with each of these picks!  

#1. Jurassic Park: Rebirth - It has all 4th of July Weekend to itself and we all know what it is. Seems like a winner to me and I went with the easy, breezy Cover Girl guesstimate of $375 million (which I may have done the last three summers in a row).      

 

#2. Lilo & Stitch - There’s such a superhero overload this summer, I may have overthought the “What’s going the be THE family film of the summer” question. Maybe this is the next Minecraft Movie hit or maybe it’s the next Snow White. Obviously, I’m hoping a lot of the kids who saw L&S the first time are going to want to bring their kids to see it this time. As Elvis would say, let’s Rock-A-Hula, Baby!      

 

#3. Superman - I went with the single DC film over the two MCU films. Warner Bros. has so much invested in their first new DC reboot, they’ve got to make this one of their biggest movies of the year. Both of the other MCU films are setting up next year’s Return of The Avengers movie, so they have less stakes. Can we believe a man can fly… again?

 

#4. Thunderbolts* - Before I thought about it (first mistake), I would’ve put Fantastic Four above Thunderbolts* as it's a known brand. However, every time I saw a trailer for TB, it looked fun and I wanted to see it more and the inverse was becoming true for the FF to me. It has an extra week to make money before Lilo and Ethen Hunt come to play, so I ultimately put this ahead. I’m going to need all the asterisks I can get for this to work. 

[And, yes, after the first weekend I’m already freaked-out about how I flipped these two at the last second]

#5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps - While it is a known brand, this is our FOURTH FF film in 20 years… and none of them have done amazeballs. If Marvel can’t make it work this time, this truly might just be a relic of the 60’s. I’m hoping they pull it off, but I feel like casual fans will be more in a “wait and see” approach.  

Good luck, everyone!

2025 Summer Blockbuster Pool List

As always, if I forgot a Icelandic film about a cursed puffin or the 7th “Based on a true story no one cared about the first time they heard it” film of the year, no apologies. I’m just listing the contenders here (or at least movies I couldn’t resist saying something about). Let’s get on with it!!! 

May 2

Thunderbolts*
Marvel movies are back to opening the Summer Movie Pool!!! This one includes all the superheroes everyone loves like… Ghost and Taskmaster?! Alright, so this is Marvel’s attempted version of the Suicide Squad and these days we could all use a little fun. Please be fun*.

May 9

Clown in a Cornfield

Fight or Flight

Juliet & Romeo

Shadow Force

Uh, let’s just say none of these films are expecting to compete with Thunderbolts… or any other new Netflix/Prime/Apple+ streaming movie that weekend.

May 16

Final Destination: Bloodlines  
In the first of our 2000’s horror-film reboots we have the sixth Final Destination film. I don’t recall if the other FD films were ever a summer release, yet if this doesn’t perform well here, this may be Final Destination’s final destination. 

Hurry Up Tomorrow

The Weeknd and Jenna Ortega star in a nightmarish film that became the soundtrack for The Weeknd’s new album. Wait, what?! The movie is the soundtrack for the album? Sure, that checks.

May 23

Lilo & Stitch [Live-Action]
The good news is that there’s no way this film could do worse than the live-action Snow White that was released earlier this year. Well… almost no way. Let’s go for one more ride on that Hawaiian Roller Coaster Ride!

Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning

I think the only “final” thing about this film is that there will never be a “Part One” as part of a Mission: Impossible franchise again. This is not Dead Reckoning Part Two, I repeat, this is not Dead Reckoning Part Two. This is clearly The Final Reckoning. Why would anyone be confused?

May 30

Karate Kid: Legends

I feel like one of the only 80’s kids that’s never watched Cobra Kai. Still, as someone who’s watched both versions of The Karate Kid numerous times, I have no idea why this film is happening. That said, pay days for Jackie Chan and Ralph Macchio are never a bad thing, even if I’d rather they’d be for More Rumble in the Bronx and My Cousin Vinny Too.

June 6

From the World of John Wick: Ballerina

Even the Baba Yaga can get a little long in the tooth sometimes, so here comes another character from the John Wick universe to seek revenge. Hopefully, this one does involve canine murder. Woof.

The Life of Chuck

A Stephen King/Mike Flannigan collab that’s not a 10-part series on Netflix? Sign me up!

June 13

How to Train Your Dragon [Live-Action]  

Anything Disney can do, DreamWorks can copy too. Set your watches now for the countdown to Live-Action Minions.

June 20

28 Years Later

It looks like a film that hits hard. It might be harder than summer audiences want.

Pixar's Elio

It’s been awhile since the last original Pixar film “mega” hit. Coco was 2017 and Inside Out was 2015. Can Elio buck that trend or are we destined to just more Finding Monsters Inc Toy Stories?

June 27

F1 

Brad Pitt tries to do for F1 what Tom Cruise tried to do for Days of Thunder. Since Days is where Tom met Nicole Kidman, Brad’s girlfriend better keep an eye on his co-star.

M3GAN 2.0

The first M3GAN was surprisingly smarter in some of its themes than expected. Unsurprisingly, the 2.0 version looks to have none of that… so bring it on! 

July 2

Jurassic World: Rebirth  

I wouldn’t even want to give birth to a dinosaur the first time. Rebirthing it seems a lot worse. 

July 11

Superman  

It’s funny that my wife asked why we’re getting “another” Fantastic Four film when she didn’t ask why we’re getting another Superman film. Maybe it’s because we all know it’s been 45 YEARS since we’ve had a good Superman film (though I did enjoy Man of Steel more than most). 

July 18

I Know What You Did Last Summer

Here’s another 2000’s horror franchise trying to rebrand for a new generation. By this point, doesn’t everyone already know what they did last summer?

Smurfs Musical

I’ll just leave this one as is. Smurfs Musical. I think that says it all.

July 25  

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Will these be the first steps toward making Marvel movies that matter? If they can’t get the FF right this time, it’s just not happening. Com’on, guys, do it for HERBIE. He deserves it. 

August 1

The Bad Guys 2

An animated sequel to an animated film? How novel. 

The Naked Gun

Leslie Nielson being replaced by Liam Neeson was not on my bingo card, but I’m all for it. Honestly, Liam’s already been being a little Lt. Drebin-esque in his last few action films anyway. Let’s make the laughs intentional this time.  

August 8  

Freakier Friday

How did they choose this as the Lindsey Lohan reunion film and not The Parent Trap?! It’s an outrage! Annie and Hallie as adults getting tricked by their kids… or maybe they switch again and they’re the ones tricking their kids… Who cares, that’s the way better film and premise. The nanny and the butler are still around. They send their kids to Janice’s summer camp. Meredith comes in with some crazy scheme to tear the sisters apart. It’s all perfect and… and… I’ve obviously thought about this way too much. 

August 15  

Nobody 2

Yup, we’ve definitely reached the end of the Summer Blockbuster Season when a sequel to a surprise COVID minor hit is hitting the screens. So sad I don’t have two more Kevin Costner Horizon movies to not see. Sniff sniff.

 

2024 Holiday Blockbuster Pool - Final Report

 The front yard inflatables are down, Valentine’s Day stuff is already in the stores, and today is ACTUALLY MLK Day, so that must mean the 2024 Holiday Blockbuster Pool has come to an end!

Not going to lie. It felt like a six-horse race where only five could win at the beginning of the pool and by the end it was only a five-horse race. That said, the placing of those horses made all the difference!

Of course, there can always be surprises and when studios spend a lot of money on movies like an anime Lord of the Rings or a Robert Zemekis/Tom Hanks project, you’d think maybe they knew what they were doing. Apparently not. 

Let’s give a “Bon voyage!” to the films that didn’t in 2024 before celebrate the true Top 5 of the Holiday Blockbuster Pool.

The “I Wouldn’t Say I’m Missing It, Bob” Section:

- Maybe people confused it with Conclave and were wondering why Ralph Fiennis wasn’t kicking more butt in his papel robe, but Liam Nesson’s Absolution movie was guilty of being forgotten. 

- Here wasn’t here or there or anywhere. People did not want to watch it with a fox, they did not want to watch it in a box. 

- I couldn’t even tell if Juror #2 was actually released in theaters or not because of the “amazing” Discovery Warner Bros. policy of thinking it’s better to lose money by NOT releasing movies than actually releasing them, but at least we know who’s guilty of that. 

- Elevation was a fine Quiet Place knock-off kind of film that’s marketing was so quiet it seems no one knew it even came out.  

The “Surprising Successes” Section:

- It may not have been THE Best Christmas Pageant Ever, but a $40 million gross on a low-budget family film is certainly up there. The BEST part is how Box-Office Mojo lists its genre as “Adventure Comedy Drama Fantasy Mystery Romance.” Uh, I could spend all day trying to think of films that could reasonably fit all six of these categories and I guarantee you The Best Christmas Pageant Ever would not be one of them.

- A Complete Unknown did a great job of giving people something else to see than singing lions and multicolored aliens over the holidays and is at $58 million so far. Now if only the real Bob Dylan could have closed captions under him when he spoke, all of our lives would’ve been better for it.

- The real star of the onslaught of Oscar bait films released on Christmas Day was Nosferatu! It’s already at $90 million and will certainly surpass $100 million before its run is over. Outside of the first two Scream films, I can’t recall too many “hit” horror films over the holidays… much less horror indie films. Maybe we can just make it a rule that Willem Dafoe has to be in all holiday-released horror films, there’d be more hits.  

   

The “And That’s The Bottom Line Because Stone Cold Said So” Section: 

- I mean, what it in the what was The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim?! There’s a current LOTR hit series on Amazon Prime. There’s the legacy of SIX LOTR films that have grossed billions. This film MADE $9.1 million… TOTAL!!! I can’t even connect the disconnect that made anyone think this was a good idea or people wanted to see it. 

- How much must The War of Rohirrim have sucked that Kraven the Hunter is mentioned second here. The curious and those hoping for a “So Bad It’s Good” movie at least propelled this final atrocity of the Sonyverse to $25 million. As to its legacy, I think only Russell Crowe’s aggro Russian mob boss performance will be studied as to how to make everyone in the audience want to punch you in the face every moment you’re on screen. 

- Really, as much as we don’t want to live in a world where making $97 million is not a success… It kind of is when your film cost $250 million to make. Red One hoped to be the next Jumanji and set-up a whole world with follow-up films and jokes and fun for families for years to come. It just didn’t pull it off. Mopey, serious Rock is the least interesting Rock persona and he needed way more than just Chris Evans to help lighten the load here.  

And now, we’ve finally arrived… Here are the Top Five Films of the 2024 Holiday Blockbuster Pool!!!

#5. Gladiator II - $172.1 million

Never let your main character’s death in the first movie (oops, Spoiler Alert) stop you from making a sequel. Who cares if the plot is like post-it notes stuck together in out of order ways, it’s all about the battles and the fights and this had plenty of them. No one said go see Ben Her for the pensive drama… It’s all about the chariot race! I can’t wait for Gladiator III in… checking calendar… 2048. Holy crap, that’s like just a year before Blade Runner 2049! We are in the strangest of timelines.

#4. Mufasa: The Lion King - $209.8 million

A slow start didn’t stop this lion from starting to roar! The Tik Toks, the social medias, the interwebs (I don’t know about any of this stuff) and the rest got people to give this film another chance after opening weekend and it’s been singing ever since. I think it’s likely it will pass Sonic 3 by the time all is said and done, but this is MLK Day and that’s when we say this pool is done, so it’ll have to settle for #4 in the pool but #3 in our hearts. 

 

#3. Sonic The Hedgehog 3 - $218.9 million

I think the biggest takeaway from another smashing success in this Sonic series is where do we put Jim Carrey’s performances. Can he be nominated twice for Best Supporting Actor for both his roles as Ivo Robotnik and Gerald Robotnik? Do they combine into one Best Actor nod? Has anyone ever played both the grandson and grandfather in the same film? Does this impact (and should it) how we judge any actor performing multiple roles in a single film? Like they were great as the bad sister, but too milktoast as the good sister. I had a whole hour and 50 minutes to think about these questions (and more!) during the runtime as I sat through this film with my nephew. The only question I didn’t have to ask because the answer was self-evident: Will there be a Sonic 4?   

  

#2. Moana 2 - $445.1 million

While I think most people agree that Moana 2 is no Moana 1, the box-office results say Moana 1 was no Moana 2! Seriously, Moana 2 has made $200 million MORE than Moana 1. That’s a huge increase and it’s clearly Disney’s biggest musical hit since Frozen 2 in 2019. Sure, the songs were meh, but the animation looked beautiful, the kakamora coconut monsters were adorable, and Moana’s like a superhero now. Look, my wife once made the mistake (she was banned from ever picking up movies at RedBox unsupervised again) of bringing home Cats Vs. Dogs 2: The Revenge of Kitty Galore. Moana 2 is a thousand times better than Cats Vs. Dogs 2: The Revenge of Kitty Galore and I’m fine dying on that hill.     

#1. Wicked: Part One - $465.5 million

If you stop to think about it, the biggest musical of the 21st Century should be the biggest hit musical movie of the 21st Century. It just doesn’t always work that way… but it certainly did this time! Wicked performed and outperformed many expectations on its way to becoming the third biggest movie of the year. The casting, staging, set design, cinematography, etc. all worked to bring the musical to life in a whole new way and still hit all the right notes. We’ve now had back-to-back live action musicals top the Holiday Blockbuster Pool (Wonka was just last year and yet that feels five years ago already). We might even make it three in a row with Wicked: Part Two being released in 2025. We will save that tale for another time, however, and let Elphaba and “Ga”linda carry the crown they deserve for besting the 2024 Holiday Blockbuster Pool! 

Sonic Speeds Past Mufasa - Weeks 5 & 6

 When it comes to family films, it used to always be every studio played second fiddle to Disney. For every Ice Age or Kung Fu Panda franchise, it always felt like there was another Disney film making even more that same year. That's started to crumble a bit in the past few years when Sings, Marios, and Wonkas made bigger splashes than pricey Disney flops. The Mouse House seemed to be turning the tide this year with Inside Out 2 and Moana 2, but now something else is seeming floppy again. 

In the battle of video game characters versus animation icons, Sega definitely drew first blood. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 ran into theaters with a $60.1 million debut. While this is down a little from Sonic 2’s $72 million start two years ago, holiday movies often play longer over the school break then needing to score all their money in the first weekend. Sonic 3 seems set to race into the top 5 and could end up with $180-$200 million. 

Meanwhile, Mufasa: The Lion King had a thorn stuck in its paw with a $35 million opening. Despite all the pedigree and amazing look that the first “live action” Lion King movie had, this origin story seemed to have no one asking for it. All those people who flocked to Moana 2 seemed to not care at all for Lion King Who. 

Again, it’s holiday break time so movies can flourish longer if they find their audience. Both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Greatest Showman didn’t “start” well but then kept going weekend after weekend. There’s time for Mufasa to rebound or for Sonic to explode even more. Still, Lin-Manuel Miranda must be thinking he scored for the wrong film when Moana 2 is a smash and Mufasa seems lost. 

Two very “other” films came out in week 5 that seemed to have nothing going for them and, truth be told, nothing did go for them. 

Kraven The Hunter had the lowest opening ever for a Sony semi-related Spider-Man movie spinoff and the use of so many words to describe these films probably explains why there’s so little interest. With only $11 million in its first three days, that may have been more than they paid Russell Crowe to play a Russian mob boss based in Londan who doesn’t trust anyone who doesn’t love Tony Bennett. It was a very complicated role!

On the other side of branding nonsense was Warner Bros. creating an anime version of Middle Earth. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim movie was completely obliterated at the box-office battlefield with an trauma-inducing $4.5 million debut. Both Kraven and LotR films fell more than 70% in their second weekends. There will be no “maybe things can get better for them over the school break” reprise for these lost souls. 

As for the other films, Wicked finally made more over the weekend than Moana 2 since they’ve been competing head-to-head for four weeks. With Wicked already having a $25 million lead, it seems hard to fathom that Moana can catch Elphaba at this point. What can she say except you’re welcome.  

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Wicked: Part One - $384.6 million

#2. Moana 2 - $359.2 million

#3. Gladiator II - $154 million 

#4. Red One - $95.4 million 

#5. Sonic The Hedgehog 3 - $60.1 million

Moana 2 Erupts Over Thanksgiving Weekend - Weeks 3 & 4

When typing out the movies coming out this season a month ago I had no idea the Biggest Thanksgiving Weekend of All-Time was on the menu. I was expecting chicken poppers and fries and that would’ve been fine.

Instead Moana 2 defied expectations (and lackluster songs) to have one of the biggest openings ever for an animated film. Debuting to a mind-blowing $225 million five-day haul, The Rock finally stuck his “Executive Producer” credit on something that actually worked. Maybe Black Adam should’ve been a musical!

Meanwhile, Wicked continued to be a wicked-smart investment for Universal Pictures. The musical that does have great songs performed well. The yellow brick road led the film to another $118 million over that five-day period. 

Gladiator II may have ended-up at the kids table over Thanksgiving dinner, yet the swords and sandals tale still handled itself with $44 million. Considering the biggest star in the film wasn’t even one of the actual gladiators, Warner Bros. should be content that the franchise has been revived to the point that they can now make a MAX show to prolong the brand. That seems to be the only thing movies mean to them these days.   

One week later, movie-goers only wanted seconds of their favorite dishes. Moana 2 sailed in $52 million. Wicked flew to $36 million, and Gladiator II fought for $12 million. These are clearly the three films that are drawing a line in the sand and daring other films to pass them. We’ll see if they can keep cooking or if a new ghost kitchen pops up to steal all their thunder.

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Wicked: Part One - $322.1 million

#2. Moana 2 - $299.3 million

#3. Gladiator II - $132.8 million 

#4. Red One - $85.8 million 

#5. n/a