Ballerina Slips While Dragon Soars - Weeks 6 & 7

As the summer of reboots, rebrands, remakes, and side hustles continues to try and make the box-office numbers rebound, we got a classic “win some, lose some” scenario. 

First, the win. How to Train Your Dragon came roaring out of the gate with an awesome $84.6 million opening. That’s almost double what the original animated feature debuted with in 2010. Fans of the original were ready to go back to the Isle of Berk and Universal didn’t hiccup this release. 

This was an even bigger opening than Thuderbolts*, and given the way families love to flock to the theaters in the summer, this PG-hit looks to be something that could fly past the $200 million mark. I can’t predict the future, but that’s the level in my mind any film needs to pass to be a legit Top 5 contender this summer. 

Then, there was a loss. From the World of John Wick: Ballerina tumbled out the gate with a $24 million opening. Despite trying to throw every side character they could to make this feel like a an actual John Wick movie (even including John Wick!), the folks who lined-up for John Wick 4 couldn’t be bothered for something that seemed like a Peacock exclusive. Still, I’m sure they’ll try a few more John Wick adjace projects before they consider the property excommunicado. 

Meanwhile, Lilo & Stitch continued being the “film of the summer” until something comes along to knock it off the mountain. It had been the #1 film for three weeks straight and only dropped to #2 after Dragon was released. With $366.5 million in hand, it has an outside chance of getting to $400 million. Oddly, standing in its path, is the new Disney/Pixar movie Elio that opens this weekend. Well planned, everybody. Good call. 

The Final Reckoning of Mission:Impossible continues to be about the same as all of their other reckonings. They’ve chosen to accept $166.5 million so far and will likely finish around $190 million. That’s above Dead Reckoning: Part One and just below Rogue Nation. While I keep thinking they could try and spin-off M:I with a new crew of agents, its likelihood of success is probably the same as Ballerina. We go to John Wick for Keanu and we go to M:I for Tom. Replacing them with an actor from an FX show is not the same. 

This week, we’ll see if 28 Years Later can be more than a fan-boy curiosity like last year’s Furiosa and if Pixar has truly found its groove after Inside Out 2 or if it’s back to its days of Lightyear. 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Lilo & Stitch - $366.5 million

#2. Thunderbolts* - $188.5 million

#3. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning - $166.5 million

#4. Final Destination: Bloodline - $130.7 million

#5. How to Train Your Dragon - $84.6 million

Lilo & Stitch Cinch Memorable Memorial Day Weekend - Weeks 4 & 5

The big guns came out firing over Memorial Day weekend, yet it wasn’t the gadgets of the IMF that won the day. Instead, something a little more extra-terrestrial stole the show. 

Lilo & Stitch had a record breaking Memorial Day weekend with a $182.6 million four-day explosion. It broke the record of 2013’s The Fast & The Furious 6 $117 million start. It like literally topped the four-week run of Thunderbolts* in FOUR DAYS!

I expected the film to do well but this is bonkers. It might already be the film of the summer and we only reached June three days ago. The film tacked on another $61.8 million in its second weekend and is already at a $279 million total. It was a 57% drop from the previous huge weekend, which is actually solid given the size of that debut. All that talk about Disney’s “live-action” pipeline being over after this year’s Snow White flop was obviously just sitting at the wrong table. 

On the other side of the holiday weekend was the return and potential end of Ethan Hunt. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning accepted a four-day weekend of $79 million. That this was heralded as the biggest opening ever for an M:I film only shows the disparity between this franchise and some of the other heavy hitters. It’s nothing to sneeze at, yet multiple Marvel movies have debuted with $200 million over three-days. 

Still, Tom and his crew packed them in and The Final Reckoning is at $122.5 million after its first 10 days. No amount of masks, gadgets, chases, fights, stunts, shootouts, AI, and techno gobbledygook could stop this film from accomplishing its mission. Now Mr. Cruise can get back to what people really want to see… Top Gun 3: More Mavericky.

Karate Kid: Legends was also released to a $20 million opening. While not awe-inspiring, it’s a huge improvement over the other “leftovers” of May that usually opened with $5 million or less. With a modest budget, KK:L should at least turn a profit and maybe more “legends” will be coming our way. Surf Ninja’s Ernie Reyes Jr., I’m looking at you!

It should be noted that Final Destination: Bloodlines has the highest Rotten Tomatoes rating of our Blockbuster Pool movies so far. That was definitely not on my bingo card. Neither was a $111.8 million total after three weeks, yet the film has been “death” defying since its release. Well done, you. 

Finally, Thunderbolts* seems to be on its last legs with $181.8 million. A $190 million could still be in play, though that’s the floor it’s bolted to. Someone tell Disney+ they need to do a modern-day series of What About Bob with the Bob from Thunderbolts*!  

We’ll see if the not-John Wick John Wick movie can stop Disney’s Lilo & Stitch ride this weekend… 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Lilo & Stitch - $279 million

#2. Thunderbolts* - $181.8 million

#3. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning - $122.5 million

#4. Final Destination: Bloodline - $111.8 million

#5. Karate Kid: Legends - $20.3 million

Final Destination Shows New Life With Bloodlines - Weeks 2 & 3

Sorry, not sorry about taking Week 2 off for an update. When Clowns, Planes, and Shadow Force are the only new options at the box-office, there’s a reason why most of them haven’t even grossed $5 million in ten days. While Fight or Flight is kind of a fun B-Movie Bullet Train and Shadow Force just made me giggle every time a character said the phrase “Shadow Force” with a straight face on-screen, it’s a little crazy how these were the films that were actually released in theaters when big-budget movies like Wolfs and The Gorge were dumped as streamers. 

Just feels like it should be flipped with the B-Movies being straight-to-streaming and A-Listers going to theaters… Though maybe that’s how you stay an A-Lister these days is by going to a streamer and avoiding the “box-office bomb” label when you underperform in theaters. Hey, I see what’s happening here!

Finally, Week 3 arrived and the hits were back, baby! Final Destination: Bloodlines had an amazing opening weekend of $51.6 million. That’s already more than the last FD film grossed in its entire run! Great call on whoever made the decision to bring back this franchise… and maybe it points again to something people still enjoy going to movies for: crowd reactions and audience responses and Chicken Jockeys.

Thunderbolts* kept grinding away at the cinema for the past couple weeks. Racking up weekends of $32 million and $17 million, the film now sits with a $155.5 million total. The path to $200 million will be hard for this film with two new mega-contenders coming out this Memorial Day Weekend, but it has a chance to crawl its way there much like Bad Boys: Ride or Die was able to stay on over 1,000 screens for two months after it debuted. 

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Thunderbolts* - $155.5 million

#2. Final Destination: Bloodline - $51.6 million

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

“Thunderbolts*” Bolts To The Top - Week 1

We went one year without a Marvel movie opening the Summer Blockbuster Pool and what a sad May we had without it in 2024. It started with a mere $27.7 debut for The Fall Guy. Thankfully, the MCU has started cranking films out again (well, opinions may vary on the “thankfully” part), but at least we started with more of a “bang” this year. 

Thunderbolts* kicked off the season with a $74.3 million opening weekend. That’s much higher than last May’s selections of The Fall Guy, Something About Something of the Planet of the Apes, IF, and Quiet Place: Even Quieter. That’s the good news!

The “you’ve been warned” news is that the opening weekends of the last MCU films released in the summer have been Dr. Strange 2’s $187 million, Thor: 4’s $144 million, Gaurdians 3’s $118 million, and Deadpool & Wolvie’s $211 million. The Thunderbolts* debut is more in line with Black Widow’s $80 million start in July 2021 and that finished with $180 million. Is this where we Gulp, Big Gulp, or Double Gulp?

Even this year’s thud Captain America: Brave New World opened with $88 million and found a way to finish with $200 million. Can word of mouth and the replacing of that asterisk to a new title for the film change the box-office momentum of the film? Absolutely! Am I mostly telling myself that because I had this film as #4 on my Top Five list? Absolutely! 

Besides, there’s nothing major being released this weekend, so Thunderbolts* has another week to play before the Memorial Day Massacre begins with Ethan Hunt’s impossible mission to stop Lilo & Stitch. West Chesapeake Valley Thunderbolts, Assemble!

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Thunderbolts* - $74.6 million

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition, here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out, and certainly terrible 2025 Summer Movie Pool prognostications. 

The Didn’t Make Its: Elio (no clue what it is or how it’ll do), Live-Action Dragon (is it too scary, too good, too the same, idk), and the hardest omission Mission: Impossible (the series is a family fave, yet the last one finished with $170 million and I think that’s not enough for the Top Five this year). BTW, on a scale of “totally got this” vs. “shaking in my boots,” I’m jump scaring myself with each of these picks!  

#1. Jurassic Park: Rebirth - It has all 4th of July Weekend to itself and we all know what it is. Seems like a winner to me and I went with the easy, breezy Cover Girl guesstimate of $375 million (which I may have done the last three summers in a row).      

 

#2. Lilo & Stitch - There’s such a superhero overload this summer, I may have overthought the “What’s going the be THE family film of the summer” question. Maybe this is the next Minecraft Movie hit or maybe it’s the next Snow White. Obviously, I’m hoping a lot of the kids who saw L&S the first time are going to want to bring their kids to see it this time. As Elvis would say, let’s Rock-A-Hula, Baby!      

 

#3. Superman - I went with the single DC film over the two MCU films. Warner Bros. has so much invested in their first new DC reboot, they’ve got to make this one of their biggest movies of the year. Both of the other MCU films are setting up next year’s Return of The Avengers movie, so they have less stakes. Can we believe a man can fly… again?

 

#4. Thunderbolts* - Before I thought about it (first mistake), I would’ve put Fantastic Four above Thunderbolts* as it's a known brand. However, every time I saw a trailer for TB, it looked fun and I wanted to see it more and the inverse was becoming true for the FF to me. It has an extra week to make money before Lilo and Ethen Hunt come to play, so I ultimately put this ahead. I’m going to need all the asterisks I can get for this to work. 

[And, yes, after the first weekend I’m already freaked-out about how I flipped these two at the last second]

#5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps - While it is a known brand, this is our FOURTH FF film in 20 years… and none of them have done amazeballs. If Marvel can’t make it work this time, this truly might just be a relic of the 60’s. I’m hoping they pull it off, but I feel like casual fans will be more in a “wait and see” approach.  

Good luck, everyone!

2025 Summer Blockbuster Pool List

As always, if I forgot a Icelandic film about a cursed puffin or the 7th “Based on a true story no one cared about the first time they heard it” film of the year, no apologies. I’m just listing the contenders here (or at least movies I couldn’t resist saying something about). Let’s get on with it!!! 

May 2

Thunderbolts*
Marvel movies are back to opening the Summer Movie Pool!!! This one includes all the superheroes everyone loves like… Ghost and Taskmaster?! Alright, so this is Marvel’s attempted version of the Suicide Squad and these days we could all use a little fun. Please be fun*.

May 9

Clown in a Cornfield

Fight or Flight

Juliet & Romeo

Shadow Force

Uh, let’s just say none of these films are expecting to compete with Thunderbolts… or any other new Netflix/Prime/Apple+ streaming movie that weekend.

May 16

Final Destination: Bloodlines  
In the first of our 2000’s horror-film reboots we have the sixth Final Destination film. I don’t recall if the other FD films were ever a summer release, yet if this doesn’t perform well here, this may be Final Destination’s final destination. 

Hurry Up Tomorrow

The Weeknd and Jenna Ortega star in a nightmarish film that became the soundtrack for The Weeknd’s new album. Wait, what?! The movie is the soundtrack for the album? Sure, that checks.

May 23

Lilo & Stitch [Live-Action]
The good news is that there’s no way this film could do worse than the live-action Snow White that was released earlier this year. Well… almost no way. Let’s go for one more ride on that Hawaiian Roller Coaster Ride!

Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning

I think the only “final” thing about this film is that there will never be a “Part One” as part of a Mission: Impossible franchise again. This is not Dead Reckoning Part Two, I repeat, this is not Dead Reckoning Part Two. This is clearly The Final Reckoning. Why would anyone be confused?

May 30

Karate Kid: Legends

I feel like one of the only 80’s kids that’s never watched Cobra Kai. Still, as someone who’s watched both versions of The Karate Kid numerous times, I have no idea why this film is happening. That said, pay days for Jackie Chan and Ralph Macchio are never a bad thing, even if I’d rather they’d be for More Rumble in the Bronx and My Cousin Vinny Too.

June 6

From the World of John Wick: Ballerina

Even the Baba Yaga can get a little long in the tooth sometimes, so here comes another character from the John Wick universe to seek revenge. Hopefully, this one does involve canine murder. Woof.

The Life of Chuck

A Stephen King/Mike Flannigan collab that’s not a 10-part series on Netflix? Sign me up!

June 13

How to Train Your Dragon [Live-Action]  

Anything Disney can do, DreamWorks can copy too. Set your watches now for the countdown to Live-Action Minions.

June 20

28 Years Later

It looks like a film that hits hard. It might be harder than summer audiences want.

Pixar's Elio

It’s been awhile since the last original Pixar film “mega” hit. Coco was 2017 and Inside Out was 2015. Can Elio buck that trend or are we destined to just more Finding Monsters Inc Toy Stories?

June 27

F1 

Brad Pitt tries to do for F1 what Tom Cruise tried to do for Days of Thunder. Since Days is where Tom met Nicole Kidman, Brad’s girlfriend better keep an eye on his co-star.

M3GAN 2.0

The first M3GAN was surprisingly smarter in some of its themes than expected. Unsurprisingly, the 2.0 version looks to have none of that… so bring it on! 

July 2

Jurassic World: Rebirth  

I wouldn’t even want to give birth to a dinosaur the first time. Rebirthing it seems a lot worse. 

July 11

Superman  

It’s funny that my wife asked why we’re getting “another” Fantastic Four film when she didn’t ask why we’re getting another Superman film. Maybe it’s because we all know it’s been 45 YEARS since we’ve had a good Superman film (though I did enjoy Man of Steel more than most). 

July 18

I Know What You Did Last Summer

Here’s another 2000’s horror franchise trying to rebrand for a new generation. By this point, doesn’t everyone already know what they did last summer?

Smurfs Musical

I’ll just leave this one as is. Smurfs Musical. I think that says it all.

July 25  

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Will these be the first steps toward making Marvel movies that matter? If they can’t get the FF right this time, it’s just not happening. Com’on, guys, do it for HERBIE. He deserves it. 

August 1

The Bad Guys 2

An animated sequel to an animated film? How novel. 

The Naked Gun

Leslie Nielson being replaced by Liam Neeson was not on my bingo card, but I’m all for it. Honestly, Liam’s already been being a little Lt. Drebin-esque in his last few action films anyway. Let’s make the laughs intentional this time.  

August 8  

Freakier Friday

How did they choose this as the Lindsey Lohan reunion film and not The Parent Trap?! It’s an outrage! Annie and Hallie as adults getting tricked by their kids… or maybe they switch again and they’re the ones tricking their kids… Who cares, that’s the way better film and premise. The nanny and the butler are still around. They send their kids to Janice’s summer camp. Meredith comes in with some crazy scheme to tear the sisters apart. It’s all perfect and… and… I’ve obviously thought about this way too much. 

August 15  

Nobody 2

Yup, we’ve definitely reached the end of the Summer Blockbuster Season when a sequel to a surprise COVID minor hit is hitting the screens. So sad I don’t have two more Kevin Costner Horizon movies to not see. Sniff sniff.

 

2024 Holiday Blockbuster Pool - Final Report

 The front yard inflatables are down, Valentine’s Day stuff is already in the stores, and today is ACTUALLY MLK Day, so that must mean the 2024 Holiday Blockbuster Pool has come to an end!

Not going to lie. It felt like a six-horse race where only five could win at the beginning of the pool and by the end it was only a five-horse race. That said, the placing of those horses made all the difference!

Of course, there can always be surprises and when studios spend a lot of money on movies like an anime Lord of the Rings or a Robert Zemekis/Tom Hanks project, you’d think maybe they knew what they were doing. Apparently not. 

Let’s give a “Bon voyage!” to the films that didn’t in 2024 before celebrate the true Top 5 of the Holiday Blockbuster Pool.

The “I Wouldn’t Say I’m Missing It, Bob” Section:

- Maybe people confused it with Conclave and were wondering why Ralph Fiennis wasn’t kicking more butt in his papel robe, but Liam Nesson’s Absolution movie was guilty of being forgotten. 

- Here wasn’t here or there or anywhere. People did not want to watch it with a fox, they did not want to watch it in a box. 

- I couldn’t even tell if Juror #2 was actually released in theaters or not because of the “amazing” Discovery Warner Bros. policy of thinking it’s better to lose money by NOT releasing movies than actually releasing them, but at least we know who’s guilty of that. 

- Elevation was a fine Quiet Place knock-off kind of film that’s marketing was so quiet it seems no one knew it even came out.  

The “Surprising Successes” Section:

- It may not have been THE Best Christmas Pageant Ever, but a $40 million gross on a low-budget family film is certainly up there. The BEST part is how Box-Office Mojo lists its genre as “Adventure Comedy Drama Fantasy Mystery Romance.” Uh, I could spend all day trying to think of films that could reasonably fit all six of these categories and I guarantee you The Best Christmas Pageant Ever would not be one of them.

- A Complete Unknown did a great job of giving people something else to see than singing lions and multicolored aliens over the holidays and is at $58 million so far. Now if only the real Bob Dylan could have closed captions under him when he spoke, all of our lives would’ve been better for it.

- The real star of the onslaught of Oscar bait films released on Christmas Day was Nosferatu! It’s already at $90 million and will certainly surpass $100 million before its run is over. Outside of the first two Scream films, I can’t recall too many “hit” horror films over the holidays… much less horror indie films. Maybe we can just make it a rule that Willem Dafoe has to be in all holiday-released horror films, there’d be more hits.  

   

The “And That’s The Bottom Line Because Stone Cold Said So” Section: 

- I mean, what it in the what was The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim?! There’s a current LOTR hit series on Amazon Prime. There’s the legacy of SIX LOTR films that have grossed billions. This film MADE $9.1 million… TOTAL!!! I can’t even connect the disconnect that made anyone think this was a good idea or people wanted to see it. 

- How much must The War of Rohirrim have sucked that Kraven the Hunter is mentioned second here. The curious and those hoping for a “So Bad It’s Good” movie at least propelled this final atrocity of the Sonyverse to $25 million. As to its legacy, I think only Russell Crowe’s aggro Russian mob boss performance will be studied as to how to make everyone in the audience want to punch you in the face every moment you’re on screen. 

- Really, as much as we don’t want to live in a world where making $97 million is not a success… It kind of is when your film cost $250 million to make. Red One hoped to be the next Jumanji and set-up a whole world with follow-up films and jokes and fun for families for years to come. It just didn’t pull it off. Mopey, serious Rock is the least interesting Rock persona and he needed way more than just Chris Evans to help lighten the load here.  

And now, we’ve finally arrived… Here are the Top Five Films of the 2024 Holiday Blockbuster Pool!!!

#5. Gladiator II - $172.1 million

Never let your main character’s death in the first movie (oops, Spoiler Alert) stop you from making a sequel. Who cares if the plot is like post-it notes stuck together in out of order ways, it’s all about the battles and the fights and this had plenty of them. No one said go see Ben Her for the pensive drama… It’s all about the chariot race! I can’t wait for Gladiator III in… checking calendar… 2048. Holy crap, that’s like just a year before Blade Runner 2049! We are in the strangest of timelines.

#4. Mufasa: The Lion King - $209.8 million

A slow start didn’t stop this lion from starting to roar! The Tik Toks, the social medias, the interwebs (I don’t know about any of this stuff) and the rest got people to give this film another chance after opening weekend and it’s been singing ever since. I think it’s likely it will pass Sonic 3 by the time all is said and done, but this is MLK Day and that’s when we say this pool is done, so it’ll have to settle for #4 in the pool but #3 in our hearts. 

 

#3. Sonic The Hedgehog 3 - $218.9 million

I think the biggest takeaway from another smashing success in this Sonic series is where do we put Jim Carrey’s performances. Can he be nominated twice for Best Supporting Actor for both his roles as Ivo Robotnik and Gerald Robotnik? Do they combine into one Best Actor nod? Has anyone ever played both the grandson and grandfather in the same film? Does this impact (and should it) how we judge any actor performing multiple roles in a single film? Like they were great as the bad sister, but too milktoast as the good sister. I had a whole hour and 50 minutes to think about these questions (and more!) during the runtime as I sat through this film with my nephew. The only question I didn’t have to ask because the answer was self-evident: Will there be a Sonic 4?   

  

#2. Moana 2 - $445.1 million

While I think most people agree that Moana 2 is no Moana 1, the box-office results say Moana 1 was no Moana 2! Seriously, Moana 2 has made $200 million MORE than Moana 1. That’s a huge increase and it’s clearly Disney’s biggest musical hit since Frozen 2 in 2019. Sure, the songs were meh, but the animation looked beautiful, the kakamora coconut monsters were adorable, and Moana’s like a superhero now. Look, my wife once made the mistake (she was banned from ever picking up movies at RedBox unsupervised again) of bringing home Cats Vs. Dogs 2: The Revenge of Kitty Galore. Moana 2 is a thousand times better than Cats Vs. Dogs 2: The Revenge of Kitty Galore and I’m fine dying on that hill.     

#1. Wicked: Part One - $465.5 million

If you stop to think about it, the biggest musical of the 21st Century should be the biggest hit musical movie of the 21st Century. It just doesn’t always work that way… but it certainly did this time! Wicked performed and outperformed many expectations on its way to becoming the third biggest movie of the year. The casting, staging, set design, cinematography, etc. all worked to bring the musical to life in a whole new way and still hit all the right notes. We’ve now had back-to-back live action musicals top the Holiday Blockbuster Pool (Wonka was just last year and yet that feels five years ago already). We might even make it three in a row with Wicked: Part Two being released in 2025. We will save that tale for another time, however, and let Elphaba and “Ga”linda carry the crown they deserve for besting the 2024 Holiday Blockbuster Pool!