‘Red One’ Feels Blue - Week 1

Anytime you can start (well, two weeks late) a Blockbuster Pool with The Rock, you should be in good hands like Allstate. Instead, we might have a case of the butterfingers, and not the ones nobody better lay a finger on. 

Red One debuted with a $32.1 million opening weekend. This may be amazeballs for a film like Violent Night that had a $20 million budget, but for a film reportedly costing… checking notes and picking jaw up off the floor… $250 MILLION, that is a lot of coal in the stocking. Blockbusters typically get about a third of their total box-office gross in the first weekend and that puts Red One on pace for a lackluster $95 million. I hope no one blames this on Lucy Lui!

Besides, if you want to live in the Egg Nog is half-full world, Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle also had an opening in the $30 millions and ended-up as a $400 million megahit. 

Still, that film came-out during a crowded Christmas week release weekend that included a Star Wars movie and it had more time to find its audience. Red One had zero competition this weekend and has Elphaba and Maximus right on its heels. That’s not even mentioning Dwayne Johnson fighting himself the following weekend in Moana 2. 

Heck, at this point Red One might not even make Freeforms' annual 25 Days of Christmas movie schedule. Which, of course, is fine because that just leaves more time for Prep & Landing and Arthur Christmas. That's so tinsel! 

All that said, even if Red One only gets to $95 million, it’s going to take other films to knock it off the Top Five for it not to be here at the end. Can Red One keep its cool all pool long or will it melt as the competition rises? Time will tell. 

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Red One - $32.1 million (don’t forget the .1… it’s very important!)

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out and perpetually doomed to fail 2024 Holiday Blockbuster prognostications. Remember, I’m the guy who last year thought Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce could be as big as Taylor Swift's Eras film. Genius!

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Moana 2 - I can barely even remember what happened in the first Moana as it wasn’t one of my favorites, but it definitely showed How Far It’d Go by drilling that song into our heads for six months straight. For those who did love it, I’m assuming they’ll be more excited about a direct sequel to a film they liked than a prequel to a film that came out 30 years ago (Yeah, I’m talking about you Mufasa!). I have the Disney machine pegged as topping this pool (Kind of like they did with Black Panther and Avatar a couple years ago) and I’m going with Moana 2 as my 1 (because that makes sense) and Mufasa as 2.      

 

#2. Mufasa - I think there are more Lion King fans in the world, as two films and a hit broadway show would attest, yet a completely new prequel/musical seems like more of a slow burn than an immediate hit to me. Like last year’s Wonka or The Greatest Showman, fans have more of a wait and see than “Buying this on Day 1” vibe that Wicked and Moana 2 have. Maybe I’m wrong (never!), but I’m betting on the likely thing versus the maybe thing.        

 

#3. Wicked: Part One - If the biggest musical of the 21st Century isn’t a hit movie I don’t even know what we’re doing with musical movies anymore. The cast seems great, the sets look phenomenal, just take everyone’s money. The only setback could be pushback from people not getting their full experience in one sitting. Waiting till 2025 for Act II is a long, long intermission… but at least I’ll have time to get through the bathroom line!   

 

#4. Gladiator II - The good news is the marketing is making this feel like something people want instead of just a money grab. If Ridley Scott doesn’t mess this up with “origins of life” philosophies like Prometheus, we should be in great shape. Give us some cool battles, Denzel chewing scenery in a toga, and overly dramatic speeches and we’re all in.   

#5. Sonic The Hedgehog 3 - It was basically a choice between this and Red One as my #5. None of the other films even looked like something that could get to $100 million grosses. I went with Sonic as the known franchise quantity. Sonic 2 made $190 million and even if this trends down, a likely $150 million total felt a whole lot better than betting on a Rock Vanity Film. Oh wait, did I say that out loud? Are we allowed to say that yet? Isn’t it in our contract that everyone has to say everything he touches turns to gold? Oh well, I guess I’ll just be zipping on my Zoa energy drinks from Grocer’s Outlet while Prime is flying off the shelves everywhere else. 

Good luck, everyone!

2024 Holiday Blockbuster List

As always, if I forgot some Oscar-bait Finnish film that’ll make three bucks and get 14 Golden Globe nominations, sue me. I’m just listing the contenders here (or at least movies that have a wide release). Let’s get on with it!!! 

November 1 

Absolution

Remember when we used to start movie pools with blockbuster Marvel movies? Now it’s with the every-six-months Liam Neeson action movies. Here he plays someone wronged and does something about it… I guess. I haven’t kept up lately, but that’s been the general theme for about 15 years now. 

Here

Director Robert Zemekis returns with another experimental idea: Let’s film the same living room over 100 years and see what happens with the people in this family. When those people are Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, you have our attention. If the living room was mine where I’m just flipping around Worst Cooks in America, Masked Singer, and Crime Scene Kitchen on TV, most people are going to just pass. 

Juror #2

Someone tried to say this could be Clint Eastwood’s last movie. Couldn’t you have said that about every Clint Eastwood movie? Still, if anyone’s still making movies into their 100’s, it’s that guy. 

November 8

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Judy Greer leads this ensemble cast through a Christmas pageant gone bonkers as the “wrong” kids in the neighborhood get involved. Thankfully, it’s the season where the wrong things can be made right and we can all learn lessons along the way. Wait, did I just write this screenplay?!

Elevation

Anthony Mackie fighting giant monsters in the post-apocalyptic Rocky Mountains? Uh, yeah! Sign me up. This could be the next Godzilla Minus Nothing. 

November 15 

Red One

Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans are exactly the superhero team we need to save Christmas this holiday season. Hopefully, this hits on the quirky Jumanji vibes of The Rock’s previous family-fun hits and not his Tooth Fairy misses.  

November 22 

Gladiator II AND Wicked !!!

Wow, talk about a Monday Night Football vs. Dancing With The Stars showdown! In one corner we have a, um, either a highly anticipated or 24-years too late sequel to the testosterone-filled Gladiator movie.

In the other corner we have,hmm, the film adaptation of the most beloved musical in the 21st century but only part of it. Well, Part One of it, to be specific. It is clearly the biggest box-office battle since Barbenheimer and theaters can only hope it ends as successful for both.   

November 27

Moana 2

The sequel to the smash animated hit splashes down over Thanksgiving weekend. Lions, Cowboys, and Maui, oh my!

December 6

Uh, let’s just say a lot of smaller films are likely trying to do smaller things this weekend. I’ll save you the trouble and just move on.

December 13 

Kraven the Hunter (+ IMAX)

I left the “+ IMAX” here because I love how studios think they can trick us into seeing a movie because it’s also in IMAX. Like, we’re just sitting at home going “I think that movie’s going to be a piece of crap, but it’s in IMAX, so let’s pay even more money for tickets.” Regardless, Sony’s goal to make movies to keep their Spider-Man license continues by making movies that do not include Spider-Man. Genius. 

 

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

If you ever wondered how Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings vision would look in anime, you now have your answer. If you ever wondered how many Lord of the Rings fans wanted to see a Lord of the Rings film in anime, you’ll find out the answer on December 13. 

December 20

Mufasa: The Lion King

The remake/sequel-machine that’s been Disney lately is now making a sequel to the live-action remake of The Lion King. I mean, sure, we can all agree that Simba’s kind of a goober and Mufasa’s really the best king in The Lion King. Does that mean he needed to get his own movie? Do we learn how Scar actually got his scar? Do we get to see Pumbaa when he was actually a young warthog? Maybe we did need this prequel. 

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Keanu Reeves lends his voice as Shadow in the latest Sonic The Hedgehog movie. Will he be John Wick-Shadow, Neo-Shadow, Ted-Shadow, or, hopefully, Duke Caboom, Canada’s Greatest Stuntman-Shadow? I find it really interesting that two films both aimed at families are opening the same weekend. Does Sonic really not fear Mufasa or does the King pay no mind to hedgehogs? 

December 25 

Oddly, there’s not a big “Christmas Day Film” this year. No Les Miz, Sherlock Holmes, or Django Unchained. It’s another list of smaller, trying to get Oscar buzz movies. About the only one that seems to have momentum is A Complete Unknown which is the Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan movie… and maybe the Robert Eggers remake of Nosferatu. Good luck with this mess!

2024 Summer Blockbuster Pool - Final Report

 Halloween candy is out, Oktoberfest beers are for sale, fantasy football drafts are happening, and the 12th season of Masked Singer is only weeks away, so it looks like the end of summer, and the 2024 Summer Blockbuster Pool, has officially happened!

Now that Labor Day has come and gone, it’s time to look back at how some of the films fared, those that weren’t so fair, and find out what exactly were the final Top Five Films of the 2024 Summer Blockbuster Pool. 

The “What Happened in August” Section

While nothing earth shattering happened in August, there were some hits to discuss… 

- Alien: Romulus will cross the $100 million mark in another week or two and succeeded in being the best Alien movie in almost 30 years. Dark ship, spiny lights, actual “aliens.” Why was this so hard for so many years?!

- It Ends With Us will cross the $150 million mark in another week or two and shows again that people will come to see movies based on books about human drama and not just wizards, vampires, and spies.   

And some flops to discuss…

- Borderlands was not able to cross the border to success losing almost $100 million. Ouch!

- The Crow reboot might as well have been “Quoth the Raven, ‘Nevermore’” after its dismal performance. 

And some did about as well as expected…

- Trap was somewhere in the Twilight Zone of neither hit or flop where most M. Night films are lately, but at least he got to have a lot of Bring Your Daughter to Work days!

The Pretenders List

Many of these films thought they could be contenders, but one good punch (or several) kept them from being considered for the Top Five nomination. 

- The month of May provided five big-budget films and they all were forgotten by June: The Fall Guy fell; Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was dethroned; IF was left at the Conjunction Junction; Furiosa was a saga no one cared about; The Garfield Movie went over like a frozen lasagna. 

- June had some fighters but a couple just bit: Horizon’s only light at the end of the tunnel was an oncoming train and Quiet Place: Day One needed to make some more noise.

- July really served the goods with three movies in the Top Five! The only non-event of July was Fly Me To The Moon getting its wings clipped.    

And with that, because Monday was Labor Day, it’s time to acknowledge and congratulate the actual Top 5 Films of The 2024 Summer Blockbuster Pool!!!  

#5. Bad Boys: Ride or Die - $193.6 million

I mean, I wouldn’t have believed it after seeing it opening weekend, but apparently the “let’s just let Martin Lawrence do whatever he wants because Will Smith is offering us nothing” formula really worked for people. More importantly, if we can get a spin-off series with Vanessa Hudgens, Cato from The Hunger Games, and the guy who plays Reggie (and only Reggie), I’d love to see that new crew of bad “boys.” 

#4. Twisters - $260.7 million

How did Warner Bros. sleep on this franchise for so long? It's like Alien: Romulus turning out to be good. Why was this so hard to do?! Country charm, big storms, fun soundtrack, a little bit of sciency gobbledygook about how diapers can absorb a tornado, and go! Nothing says breezy summer flick like Twisters.    

 

#3. Despicable Me 4 - $355.5 million

If ever there’s been a series that’s just come and done it’s thing lately it’s Despicable Me and the Minions movies. You’re guaranteed $250 million to $370 million everytime. Good, bad, indifferent, the movies just make money. Maybe that’s the most despicable thing about them?

 

#2. Deadpool & Wolverine - $603.9 million

What started as an internet feud between Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman became a love-letter to the pre-MCU marvel movies at 20th Century Fox. It’s a love story, baby, and they just said “yes.” With more Easter eggs than the Easter bunny, the latest MCU film may not have fixed anything with the MCU, but as Owl City and Carly Rae Jepson would say when you have f-bombing superheroes, “it’s always a good time.” 

(Ugh, did I just make two song references that are over 12 years old?! I better throw an H-O-T-T-Ohh-G-O reference in to show I still know what music is like in 2024.)   

#1. Inside Out 2 - $650.8 million

Remember all those Deadspin “Disney is Dead” articles you’ve been reading the last few years? This was their Julia Roberts going back to that Beverly Hills store in Pretty Woman scene. “Big mistake. Big! Huge!” (Yikes, why do my references get older the later I stay up to write this?!) Anyhow, the MouseHouse did its damn thing this summer. Biggest animated movie of all-time, check. Biggest R-Rated movie of all-time, check. (Take that, Jesus! (aka, Passion of the Christ)). And now they’ve got Moana 2, Mufasa 1, and Captain America 4 lined-up. It’s like John Wick going, “Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back!” 

Deadpool Domination; Twisters Takes Off - Weeks 11, 12, & 13

There was a time when people said Disney would never touch the Deadpool series with a Pinocchio nose-sized pole. It was “too” against their image. To be fair, that was before American Horror Story started having promo touts on the Disney+ home page. Regardless, Disney has to be thanking their wise-cracking/blood gel pack stars that the Merc with a Mouth came to save the MCU.

Deadpool & Wolverine had the sixth largest opening of all-time with $211.4 million!!! It slotted right above Jurassic World ($208.8 million) and below Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi ($220 million). It was the second biggest opening since Covid behind Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1 million) and, of course, became the highest R-rated opening ever by besting the other two highest opening R-Rated movies… Yes, Deadpool 1 and Deadpool 2. To put that into perspective, D&W topped Deadpool 1’s record by almost $80 million!!!

There’s a pretty good precedent that films opening this huge go on to triple their first weekend total for their final gross. In other words, a third of their final gross is the opening weekend. Either way, penciling in D&W for something over $600 million looks like a lock. Just two little problems… One) There already is a film over $600 million this summer and Two) There’s just five more weekends left to catch it. Should be a fun race to the finale!

In other news, I think our fifth film for the final Top Five flew in. Twisters ignored being a sequel to a forgotten relic of the 90’s and forged its own path with a $81 million debut. In just two weeks, the film has already sucked-in $154.6 million. That’s placing it at #6 with a bullet on our chart with the Apes in its sight and it even has a chance to catch those Bad Boys as well. 

On a side note, I completely forgot how huge the first Twister movie was. It finished with $241 million in 1996. Its first weekend was $41 million (ok) and its second weekend was $37 million (WHAT). A not-even 10% drop from the first big opening weekend to the second?! That’s nuts now and even nuts in 1996. How did Warner Bros. wait 28 years for a sequel?!

In other non-relevant blockbuster pool news, Longlegs wins the award for indie-release of the year as the Silence of the Se7en throwback has made almost $60 million off a $10 million budget. Sadly, the fun-throwback vibes of Fly Me To The Moon just couldn’t take-off as it might not even get to a $20 million total at the theaters.    

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Inside Out 2 - $613.7 million

#2. Despicable Me 4 - $291.4 million

#3. Deadpool & Wolverine - $211.4 million

#4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die - $191.8 million

#5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - $170.9 million

4th of July is Red, White, and Yellow - Weeks 9 & 10

 It’s hard to think about what’s more American: apple pie, baseball, hot dogs, or Minions?

Despicable Me 4 exploded over 4th of July Weekend with a $122.6 four-day debut. Gru and the crew were back for their latest mission and audiences were waiting with freeze-ray breath. That four-day take is about even with Minions: Rise of Gru from two years ago (yes, also over 4th of July weekend), so that bodes well for a film that might mirror the success of that film’s $370 million total. 

While the success of Despicable Me 4 may not have been surprising, the only 47% drop of Inside Out 2 (when faced with a direct family/animated film) was. Joy, Anxiety, and all those other emotions kept giving everyone the feels and it’s hard to see any film topping Inside Out 2 as “the” movie of the summer. It’s now at $534 million and looks like it could pass The Super Mario Bros. Movie at $575 million after its latest $30 million weekend for the second biggest animated film of all-time. Catching Incredibles 2 at $608 million would, obviously, be incredible. 

Meanwhile, A Quiet Place: Day One wasn’t so quiet with a $52 million debut. Certainly, a strong start for a spin-off film of the franchise which bodes well for other spin-off movies in the Quiet-verse. Still, this was a little shy of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ $58 million start, so Day One might need to make some more noise if it wants to catch those monkeys in the pool. 

Also, Kevin Costner’s lovechild Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 started with an $11 million opening weekend. Yes, about the same as The Stranger’s - Chapter 1. However, The Strangers cost $8.5 million to make and Horizon is in the triple million dollar digit category. Sure, that’s for all four of the Horizon films, though it’s hard to see how excited anyone’s going to be about making Chapters 3 and 4 now when no one ever cared about the first flick. 

Now, tons of people are throwing dirt on Kevin Costner and making fun of him for throwing so much of his own money on this dumpster fire, but hey, it’s his money and maybe more celebs should be putting their own capital forward for labors of love vs. cashing-in on the eighteenth reboot/rebrand/remake of the year. I mean, sure, “he’s an idiot,” yet let’s not forget that his project paid a lot of people (from actors to costumer designers to key grips to caterers) a lot of money while working to assemble this 12-hour, four-part monstrosity. Keep staying weird, Kevin Costner. The world’s more interesting that way.

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Inside Out 2 - $534.1 million

#2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die - $177.4 million

#3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - $169.6 million

#4. Despicable Me 4 - $122.6 million

#5. IF - $110.8 million

‘Inside Out 2’ Turns Summer Box Office Upside Down - Weeks 7 & 8

 The last time Disney’s had a big animation hit was when Old Town Road was new. 

It’s been five years of “not a whole lot” from the studio that used to produce gold. They’ve released nine films since Frozen II with “OK-at-Best” as the only trophy they were winning. While certainly there were some good flicks in there, they couldn’t shake the impression that Disney/Pixar had stopped becoming “must-see” viewing now that Marios and Minions were running the box-office (and proving that “animated films” weren’t the problem). At last, it looks like the Mouse House has finally made something that clicked. 

Inside Out 2 exploded in its first weekend with a $154.2 million debut! That’s the second biggest animation opening of all-time, only behind the incredible Incredibles 2 start in 2018 of $182.7 million. For once, Disney won’t have to be worrying about Sadness and Anxiety, because Joy is the only character that matters right now. Amazeballs!

Unbelievably, the film had another trick up it’s sleeve… A second weekend of $101.2 million!!! Only a handful of films in history have topped $100 mill in their second weekend and now Inside Out 2 is one of them. As I’ve said before, even “healthy” blockbusters drop 50%-60% in their next weekend. Inside Out 2 dropped… rubbing eyes… 34%?! That’s insane. 

After only ten-days the film is already at $356.4 million. If you were looking for a sure-fire film that was going to be in the Final Top Five of the season, I think at this point it’s fair to play the Annie Potts bit from Ghostbusters: “We’ve got one!”

Meanwhile… Bad Boys: Ride or Die has been performing well and dropping around 40% each week. So far the film has ridden $147 million and looks like to out-race the Apes in the final tally.

Speaking of which, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is at $164 million current and will probably tap-out around $170 million. This certainly was successful enough to continue the series in the future as they’ve moved the series into the future. That’s more than can be said about Furiosa which sadly means we’ll never get Erectus: A Mad Max Saga.

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Inside Out 2 - $356.4 million

#2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - $164 million

#3. Bad Boys: Ride or Die - $147 million

#4. IF - $107 million

#5. The Fall Guy - $90 million

‘Bad Boys’ Still Coming 4 You - Weeks 5 & 6

With Gray May behind us, the June Gloom came out swinging with Bad Boys: Ride or Die. 

Bad Boys 4 took off pretty much where the last Bad Boys film left off. Debuting with almost $57 million, that’s just a few million less than Bad Boys For Life started in 2020. Fans were still into the pairing even if the script wasted no time in going off the rails. At the least the runtime didn’t overstay its welcome at a smooth 115 minutes. Any movie where I can sip my soda with confidence that I won’t have to make a bathroom run is a win for me these days!

Bad Boys: Ride or Die opened similarly to Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. That film has been the clear star so far this season with a $150 million gross. Will this film reach those same treetops or will it be too bad for its own good before then? 

The other new movie, The Watchers, opened like a knock-off M. Knight Shyamalan film. While a $7 million debut for a new filmmaker's first film is fantastic, it’s not exactly the type of stuff Summer Blockbusters are made of. Even James Cameron’s first film was Piranha 2, so you’ve got time to figure it out, Ishana Night Shyamalan.   

As for the leftovers, IF and The Garfield Movie kept filling their coffers as kids were getting out of school. IF is For Real going to become a $100 million movie in another week and that looked Imaginary after its opening weekend. Meanwhile, Garfield kept stuffing himself and is up to $68 million by now. It may not reach as high as IF, but it’s already sped past Furiosa. Great, now she’s got another thing to be mad about! 

Speaking of stalling, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is still $110 million away from even its production budget! With $58 million so far, there’s zero chance this film is in it for the long haul. Enjoy your last week in the Top Five!

The Fall Guy seems to be falling in-line with a $90 million final gross as it’s now at $85 million and about to have its screens decreased with newer films being released. That’s not too far off from the director David Leitch’s last film Bullet Train which finished with $103 million. Maybe that’s just his speed zone. 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - $150 million

#2. IF - $93.4 million

#3. The Fall Guy - $85 million

#4. Garfield - $68.6 million

#5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga - $58.7 million