Running Man Trips & Now You See Me Kinda Does - Week 2

Wow, it just took the second week of the pool for the Holiday Season to lose a little of its spice. Two new films opened, yet one seemed more set-up for success. Its trailer had been playing ad nauseum for months and had the look of being a big blockbuster. The other seemed like an Apple+ movie that someone forgot was an actual theatrical release. Instead, the should’ve-been streamer beat-out the marketing blitz. Whoops.

Now You See Me, Now You Don’t opened to middling $21 million but that was enough to be #1 at the box-office this week. That opening is almost the same as Now You See Me 2’s debut in 2016 which went on to a $65 million total. 

While, the series managed to make Isla Fisher reappear along with her replacement Lizzy Caplin, the biggest heist was Rosamand Pike stealing every scene she was in. Sadly, my wife thought it was a bug and not a feature that Rosamund’s accent was all over the place. I had to mansplain to her that that’s just what South African accents sound like. Anyone who watched Lethal Weapon 2 growing-up would agree.   

On the other side of the theater, people couldn’t run away more if they tried from The Running Man. For a $100 million-plus budgeted film to debut with $16.5 million is a sad sign. 

Did the 21st Century not want a remake of a film they probably didn’t know about? Did fans from the 20th Century reject a non-Arnie-esque version (Three dashes in one word? I’m either rocking this or overdoing it… yup, definitely the first one). Even the 2012 snoozefest, Colin Ferrel remake of Total Recall opened better with $25 million. 

If only Glenn Powell had uttered the same amazing line from the original Running Man (“Here is Sub-Zero, now plain zero!”), then this film would’ve opened with $2000 million, no question.

Meanwhile, all the good buzz in the world couldn’t stop Predator: Badlands from tripping on its own fangs. Dropping 68% from its first week (normal is 40%-50%), the Week 2 take of $12.7 million didn’t inspire much long-term confidence. There is a general “Who Know” about the fourth and fifth spots of this Holiday Blockbuster Pool, but a two-week total of $66 million and a likely less than $100 million stay in theaters isn’t what poolers who picked it were hoping for.  

There may be other films opening this weekend, though there is only one film that matters. Wicked For Good is set to be the biggest 2025 opening since Lilo & Stitch’s $146 million start. Could it even touch Minecraft’s $162 million debut? I’m just glad it’s 20 minutes shorter so I have a better chance to get through in one sitting. My bladder has certainly not been changed for good with all these long movie run times! 

    

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Predator: Badlands - $66 million 

#2. Now You See Me, Now You Don’t - $21 million

#3. The Running Man - $16.5 million

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

Predator: Badlands Not So Bad - Week 1

It’s happening!!! The 2025 Holiday Blockbuster Pool is here and it actually started with a film that wasn’t DOA on arrival. Phew. 

Predator: Badlands opened with $40 million and the studio was quick to point out that this was the largest opening ever for a Predator movie. It’s also the largest opening ever for a Badlands movie. Where was the press release about that?

The reality is that despite numerous reboots and rebrands, the Predator brand hasn’t exactly been box-office gold since Arnie and Carl Weathers’ classic arm-wrestle high-five. Alien vs. Predator opened to $38 million in 2004, almost the same as Predator: Badlands, and you can bet movie tickets cost a heck of a lot less back then than today’s boujee prices. 

Still, $40 million is fine. Alien: Romulus opened around that last year and finished with $105 million total. This year, that might be a Top Five number. It’s better than last year’s Red One $32 million start and the competition is literally a ping-pong playing Timothée Chalamet movie. Time will tell. 

Amazingly, there’s another Schwarzenegger re-do, The Running Man, that’s coming out this week to try and knock Predator: Badlands off its perch. Where did all this Arnold nostalgia come from and why didn’t it lead to James Cameron making some new True Lies films? I’d rather see more of those films than more of The Sullys, airing 8pm Wednesdays on ABC this Spring… as long as you don’t have YouTubeTV. 

    

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Predator: Badlands - $40 million 

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out and perpetually doomed to fail 2025 Holiday Blockbuster prognostications. Remember, I’m the guy who thought Strange World and Lightyear were going to save Disney. Genius!

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Avatar: Fire & Ash - It’s sad that I feel like these films have become as meaningless to me as Transformers films, but not everything has to be about me. I still have Sisu 2 to look forward too! Instead, I think folks will flock to this because (I hope) they like it or because they feel like they have to to have a say about it. The last film made $575 million by MLK Weekend and I feel this will have a little less fanfare, so I went with $525 million for my guesstimate.       

#2. Wicked For Good - The last one made $475 million and I think this will be a little less green. Maybe not as many repeated viewings and sing-along editions.          

 

#3. Zootopia 2 - For me, this was the last of the “sure things.” The first one made about $350 million and even if this is less, it’s gotta be more than what #4 and #5 make.   

 

#4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants - Yup, this one even caught me by complete surprise. We just were never a SpongeBob family (no offense!), yet when I saw the box-office totals for 2015’s Sponge on the Run movie was $165 million, more than my jaw hit the floor. If there’s an audience for this film, they’ve got the whole holiday break to find it. 

#5. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 - The first made $137 million and I feel this will hit pretty much the same way. In Josh Hutcherson I trust. Team Peeta 4 Life! 

Good luck, everyone!

2025 Holiday Blockbuster Pool Preview

As always, if I forgot some Oscar-bait Bulgarian film that’ll make three bucks and get 14 Golden Globe nominations, sue me. I’m just listing the contenders here (or at least movies that have a wide release). Let’s get on with it!!! 

November 7 

Predator: Badlands 

Apparently the Predator franchise didn’t hear they should be a series on FX and they’re releasing a new movie. They’re even making it PG-13 to try and capture all the young kids who’ve literally never even heard of a Predator movie. What could go wrong?!

November 14 

Now You See Me: Now You Don't

This series was sort of the National Treasure of the 2010’s. Family friendly, twisty turvy adventures whose actors made it seem better than they probably were. Did they ever make a lick of sense? Who cares! It’s magic. Suffice to say, this flick means a lot more to my fam than Avatar 3 :) 

The Running Man

Remakes of Arnie films from the past don’t have a great track record. That said, if you’re going to do a remake with cult-fav director Edgar Wright and current “everywhere” guy Glen Powell, why not. Let’s hope they make this work because this year’s Holiday Movie Pool needs some hits… or maybe I should say runs.    

November 21 

Sisu 2: Road to Revenge

I’m obviously just listing this as a huge fan of Finnish filmmakers everywhere, but mostly because the story of an old guy killing Nazis never gets old. Shameless plug, go check out these people’s holiday classic Rare Exports for an evergreen treat that never gets old. 

Wicked: For Good 

I guess calling it Part 2 was too cliche. The smash from last season is back for the second act. Will it recapture the same magic or were all the “popular” songs in the first half?

November 26 

Zootopia 2 

I guess the gap between Zootopia 1 and 2 is the same as Now You See Me 2 and 3, yet this feels as left field as Inside Out 2. Maybe it was the success of that mothballed franchise that made Disney think what other great first film could we revise? More importantly, I don’t know how they’re going to top Shakira’s, I mean, Gazelle’s Try Everything song, but I’m here for it. 

December 5 

Five Nights at Freddy's 2

The first film opened with over $80 million and that was while also being “free” to watch on Peacock. Whether that is evidence that people still love going to theaters or that no one has Peacock, who knows. Will this flick take the franchise to even greater heights and, more importantly, can I still be the only person who watched it for free on opening night on Peacock?

Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair

I’m certainly not the one to ask about this as I always thought Kill Bill should only be one movie and not at 4 hours and 18 minutes. Yes, that’s the ask this time and I’m sure there will be some fun cos-play on opening night. Instead, I’ll be pausing Peacock every 20 minutes to go the bathroom during the barely 90 minutes of Five Night’s 2. Being old is awesome! 

December 12 

Scarlet

I can’t explain why studios are avoiding this weekend in December. The only potential “hit” I see this weekend is an anime film I know nothing about. Still, having paid attention to the recent hits of Demon Slayers and Chainsaw Man, I’ll list this film here in case it means something to someone else and they’d like to put it on their list. 

December 19

Avatar: Fire and Ash

If there are bigger films I’ve cared less about, I can’t think of any. Avatar 2 was a confusing snooze to me, but it clearly cleaned-up at the box-office. Will this film do the same or have The Sully’s not been gone long enough for us to miss them yet?

David

Angel Studios follows-up their King of Kings Easter hit with the Christmas story of… King David? I mean, maybe by lineage he is the great, great, great with a lot of other greats grandfather of Christmas. I just hope they found voice acting room for Richard Gere since he played David in the 80’s live-action movie. 

The Housemaid

Sydney Sweeny and Amanda Seyfried star in a mystery/thriller directed by Paul Fieg. That’s it. That’s all I’ve got. If it’s anything like the first A Simple Favor, that’s all I need. And if it’s anything better than Fieg literally stealing money to make Jackpot for Prime Video, we’ll call that a win too.  

Is This Thing On?

Bradley Cooper’s latest directing/starring vehicle has him as a comedian in the middle of a divorce. Calling it a ha-ha version of Marriage Story is probably a stretch, but the write-up I saw that said “sweet-solued, funny, and tender” doesn’t seem so daunting.   

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

I have it on good accounts that this is a SpongeBob SquarePants movie. We may be spared from any Antonio Banderas as a live-action pirate scenes, but as always, I’m not really in charge of that department.  

December 25

Anaconda

Jack Black and Paul Rudd are BACK in the giant snake movie that started it all! I don’t really know if it started anything, yet I’m excited people still exist that want to make ridiculous movies. Anyone can make films where everyone is miserable and hates their lives. It takes a special person to make movies about those people getting killed by a ginormous serpent!

Marty Supreme

It’s a movie starring Timothee Chalamet as a ping pong master. Sometimes I just want to be a fly on the wall when people share their pitches to film producers. I’m sure it’ll be great and win numerous awards, but how is this better than Balls of Fury and Ping Pong Playa? There’s already SO MANY great ping pong films. 

Song Sung Blue

As a huge fan of tribute bands and paying $10 to see them over paying $300 to see people who can’t even chew solid food anymore perform, I’m intrigued by this movie. Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson star as singers going nowhere until they bring joy to millions (ok, maybe 75 people in a park on a Wednesday night in the summer) as a Neil Diamond tribute band. I hope it’s So Good, So Good, So Good!