Fast X Stalls; Mermaid Floats - Weeks 3-4

 

The Fast & Furious series has always defied expectations. The first film debuted with a larger gross than the film’s budget. The third film seemed to be sending the series to Direct to DVD Land (back then, they still had DVDs). Instead, the fourth film reset the series to become a legit worldwide franchise. With the end in sight, all the hype was on how Fast X could be the “Infinity War” to the final film’s “Endgame” with Fast 11. Let’s just say Jason Momoa was no Thanos. 

Fast X opened with a $67 million weekend. That was down $3 million from F9: A Fast Saga’s debut two years ago. The feeling was F9’s opening was down from Fate of the Furious (aka Fast 8… why don’t they make these titles simple?!) because theaters had just reopened from Covid restrictions. No such excuses this time. The series is trending down because, well, the series is trending down. If Jason Momoa in a purple genie outfit can’t get people back in the seats, you’re done. 

That said, there are about 8 billion fascinating things in the film. Brie Larson’s fashion style and performance all felt like she thought she was filming Nissan commercials. High-tech prisons that seemed more from Blade Runner 3049 than modern-day military. The clear inspiration from the video game Rocket League where cars play soccer during the Rome scene. The inability for gravity or friction or walls or cars to cause any impediment to said “soccer ball” as it careens toward the Vatican. Trained “Agency” agents are unable to capture any of their intended targets including Jordana Brewster who can’t even make a decent tuna sandwich. No wonder Mr. Nobody needed Dom and his crew the last few films. His people were worthless!

Still, calling Mr. Momoa’s performance “polarizing” is like an insult to both the North and South Pole. To call it over the top is insulting tops. There are no words. He took all of them. I may never know exactly how I feel about his role. I wasn’t bored, but I was sure something. Literally, there was a point where I was like: “Maybe Amber Heard’s not the one we want cut out of Aquaman 2.”    

Coming into Week 4 was The Little Mermaid. Though there were common complaints of “remake fatigue” and, sadly, trolls concerned about the racial background of mythical characters, I was much more leery of the listed 135 minute runtime. Part of the original’s charm was its lack of wasted energy, i.e. it’s 83 minute length! As hand-drawn animation was costly and time-consuming back in the day, there was no time for Zack Snyder-esque 7-hour editions that included the mer-people’s backstory as science mutations gone wrong from Prince Eric’s great-great-great grandmother. Was Disney going to blow this and give the people more backstory about things they never wanted in the first place?

The Little Mermaid opened in a big way over Memorial Day weekend collecting $117.5 million over the four days. It’s almost the exact same opening Aladdin had in 2019 when it earned $116.8 over the same period. That film went on to earn over $355 million and there’s no reason to think this fish can’t swim the same lap. If that holds up, The Little Mermaid has a chance to rule the pool.  

In regards to the length, I actually found the pace to match most of the original’s briskness. The few new songs and scenes didn’t break what wasn’t broken. They didn’t even try to spawn a new Disney+ series about the daughters of Triton, which was refreshing. Maybe Steven Spielberg would’ve had more success with his West Side Story if he’d staged it under the sea? 

Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 did some guarding of its own. Despite opening at a lower total than the other MCU hits in the last two pools, it declined at a smaller rate as well. With blockbuster films, falling 60% or so in the 2nd weekend has become the norm. Meaning, if films fall more than that look for a quick fall, and if films fall less it will be around longer.

Guardians 3 fell 47% in its second week, 47% in its third, and just 35% over the holiday weekend. Rocket Racoon may not have long legs, but this film certainly does! The film has already collected $306 million and $350 could also be in play for this film (along with Mermaid). Can something else come out to challenge these two films or will these be the top films of the summer?

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $306.8 million

#2. The Little Mermaid - $117.5 million

#3. Fast X - $113.5 million

#4. Book Club: The Next Chapter - 16.4 million

#5. n/a

“Guardians Volume 3 Gets Turned Down” - Week 1

What kind of bias would we have if we didn’t have recency bias? The disappointing returns, Rotten Tomato scores, and TwitterVerse reactions to some of the last few Marvel Cinematic Universe movies and TV shows would have you believe the world has said they’ve had enough and they don’t want any more. Yet, every non-Covid summer since 2007 has opened with a Marvel related film and they’ve all performed well. The same’s going to happen this year, too… Right... Right… Um, guys… Hello… Anybody out there?!

The above paragraph may have fit for last year’s Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness or even last fall’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Both had opening weekends near $200 million and finished with totals north of $400 million. Sure, Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania hit a snag in February, but everything will be alright once we get to Chris Pratt and his beloved goofball Guardians franchise. People like them! Oops.

If Quantumania was a snag, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 played like a skipped mix-tape track. Opening with $118.4 million, this was a drop of almost $80 million from the “good” Marvel openings of last year! Even Pratt's last “third” movie Jurassic World: Dominion opened better with $145 million. If this keeps up, James Gunn’s not even going to be allowed to make Scooby Doo movies again. 

Suffice to say, this isn’t the most terrible, worstest thing ever as far as movie box-offices go. Momentum could turn around in the coming weeks, yet a lot of big films have a 2.5 multiplier of their opening weekend for final grosses and that has Guardians topping out around $300 million. That’s a pretty low bar for so many poolers (including this guy!) that predicted it’d be the #1 film of the summer. 

On the bigger “State of the MCU” side, Guardians 3 seemed to be the “surest thing” in the MCU theatrical slate. Known quantity, popular franchise, same cast, etc. Who knows what The Marvels will be? Are people ready for the new Captain America next summer? People still don’t know what Thunderbolts is and Blade was a niche movie series 20 years ago. Guardians was the legit “We all know what this is and we can count on it” film Marvel needed. Now you’ll be able to double-feature it with Quantumania on Disney+ by June. I am Groot, indeed.    

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $118.4 million

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition, here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out, and now already screwed 2023 Summer Movie Pool prognostications. 

My “no thank-you’s” were Transformers (the last one finished at $130 mill), Oppenheimer (just couldn’t see it getting past $200 mill), Barbie (there’s still, like, literally no words for what that film is yet... except, maybe, "pink"), The Flash (literally too many words about that film), Elemental (Disney/Pixar Animation hasn’t had a theatrical hit in years), and Spider-Verse was my hardest pass because it’s probably my most looked-forward to film. I wanted to “will it” past Fast X and M:I, but just couldn’t. 

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - I banked on the rinse, wash, repeat of Strange 2 and Panther 2 that this film could get to those heights and maybe a little more because it would be more re-watchable with the action/comedy shenanigans. After its lackluster opening, my $484 million guestimate is now about as likely as a Groot autobiography audiobook where Vin Diesel just reads “I am Groot” for 327 pages. On second thought, that sounds amazing!    

 

#2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - This was the only film I felt could get that Top Gun: Maverick buzz. If it’s actually good (fingers crossed), could all those 80’s kids make it back to the theaters again and turn this into a juggernaut? I decided it’d only be a regular-sized hit in the $350-$400 million range, but “mega-hit” is in play.       

 

#3. The Little Mermaid - While “mega-hit” could be in play here (as it has a ton of all-ages appeal that led to Beauty and Lion King’s success), I haven’t felt the same level of buzz with this film. Thinking it’ll be more in the Aladdin $300 million range left it here for me.   

 

#4. Fast X - Not happy about this as the Fast films have been trending down since Furious 7. Still, the potential of it righting the ship and trending-up made me think this would have enough to out-run the #5 film. I was penciling this in at around $250 million.    

  

#5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Look, the highest grossing M:I film ever was Fallout and that was $220 million. For this to go crazily higher than that might be a more impossible mission than Maverick had last year. Ok, not really, but you have to talk yourself into things when you’re making your picks because Lord knows no one else is listening :)    

Good luck, everyone!