“Guardians Volume 3 Gets Turned Down” - Week 1

What kind of bias would we have if we didn’t have recency bias? The disappointing returns, Rotten Tomato scores, and TwitterVerse reactions to some of the last few Marvel Cinematic Universe movies and TV shows would have you believe the world has said they’ve had enough and they don’t want any more. Yet, every non-Covid summer since 2007 has opened with a Marvel related film and they’ve all performed well. The same’s going to happen this year, too… Right... Right… Um, guys… Hello… Anybody out there?!

The above paragraph may have fit for last year’s Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness or even last fall’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Both had opening weekends near $200 million and finished with totals north of $400 million. Sure, Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania hit a snag in February, but everything will be alright once we get to Chris Pratt and his beloved goofball Guardians franchise. People like them! Oops.

If Quantumania was a snag, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 played like a skipped mix-tape track. Opening with $118.4 million, this was a drop of almost $80 million from the “good” Marvel openings of last year! Even Pratt's last “third” movie Jurassic World: Dominion opened better with $145 million. If this keeps up, James Gunn’s not even going to be allowed to make Scooby Doo movies again. 

Suffice to say, this isn’t the most terrible, worstest thing ever as far as movie box-offices go. Momentum could turn around in the coming weeks, yet a lot of big films have a 2.5 multiplier of their opening weekend for final grosses and that has Guardians topping out around $300 million. That’s a pretty low bar for so many poolers (including this guy!) that predicted it’d be the #1 film of the summer. 

On the bigger “State of the MCU” side, Guardians 3 seemed to be the “surest thing” in the MCU theatrical slate. Known quantity, popular franchise, same cast, etc. Who knows what The Marvels will be? Are people ready for the new Captain America next summer? People still don’t know what Thunderbolts is and Blade was a niche movie series 20 years ago. Guardians was the legit “We all know what this is and we can count on it” film Marvel needed. Now you’ll be able to double-feature it with Quantumania on Disney+ by June. I am Groot, indeed.    

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $118.4 million

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition, here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out, and now already screwed 2023 Summer Movie Pool prognostications. 

My “no thank-you’s” were Transformers (the last one finished at $130 mill), Oppenheimer (just couldn’t see it getting past $200 mill), Barbie (there’s still, like, literally no words for what that film is yet... except, maybe, "pink"), The Flash (literally too many words about that film), Elemental (Disney/Pixar Animation hasn’t had a theatrical hit in years), and Spider-Verse was my hardest pass because it’s probably my most looked-forward to film. I wanted to “will it” past Fast X and M:I, but just couldn’t. 

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - I banked on the rinse, wash, repeat of Strange 2 and Panther 2 that this film could get to those heights and maybe a little more because it would be more re-watchable with the action/comedy shenanigans. After its lackluster opening, my $484 million guestimate is now about as likely as a Groot autobiography audiobook where Vin Diesel just reads “I am Groot” for 327 pages. On second thought, that sounds amazing!    

 

#2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - This was the only film I felt could get that Top Gun: Maverick buzz. If it’s actually good (fingers crossed), could all those 80’s kids make it back to the theaters again and turn this into a juggernaut? I decided it’d only be a regular-sized hit in the $350-$400 million range, but “mega-hit” is in play.       

 

#3. The Little Mermaid - While “mega-hit” could be in play here (as it has a ton of all-ages appeal that led to Beauty and Lion King’s success), I haven’t felt the same level of buzz with this film. Thinking it’ll be more in the Aladdin $300 million range left it here for me.   

 

#4. Fast X - Not happy about this as the Fast films have been trending down since Furious 7. Still, the potential of it righting the ship and trending-up made me think this would have enough to out-run the #5 film. I was penciling this in at around $250 million.    

  

#5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Look, the highest grossing M:I film ever was Fallout and that was $220 million. For this to go crazily higher than that might be a more impossible mission than Maverick had last year. Ok, not really, but you have to talk yourself into things when you’re making your picks because Lord knows no one else is listening :)    

Good luck, everyone!