A Wicked Weekend For Wicked & Gladiator II - Week 2

[Opening with a side note: Was at the theater last night and it was packed at 10:30pm on a Tuesday night. We were trying to get tickets to Wicked but every screening was filled so we had to “settle” for Moana 2’s opening night. The Rock can sing as well as Jeff Goldblum, right? Right?! Anyhow, it was $7 Tuesday at our local theater, but still… To see a packed theater in the middle of a busy week felt nice. It’s like movies still matter… as long as those movies aren’t Red One.]  

Wicked came, Wicked saw, and Wicked conquered. The long-delayed, rumored, will-they/won’t-they musical adaptation finally hit the big screen and audiences were ready. 

Wicked: Part One opened with a whopping $112.5 million debut. It was by far the biggest opening ever for a Broadway Musical film adaptation, topping Into The Woods $31 million, and it’s the biggest live-action musical opening ever unless you consider the CGI animals in the 2019 The Lion King remake as live-action. I mean, Cynthia Erivo is as green in real life as Beyonce is a lioness, so I could see the argument.  

Actually, I forgot that the live-action Beauty & The Beast did open with $175 million in 2017, so that certainly is more of a one-to-one comparison of live-action musicals, even though that was a remake of a film with a 25-year Disney fanbase. Regardless, it was a huge debut for a film people just weren’t sure how well it would do. Straight from Broadway films have mixed results and even the “hits” are more subdued than Disney’s often blockbuster results. Maybe this will replace The Wizard of Oz as the film folks watch on an annual basis around the holidays. 

In the other corner of the box-office this weekend was Gladiator II. It was clearly in the Oppenheimer role against Barbie this time around, yet just like Oppenheimer, it did very well for itself with a solid $55 million opening. There’s nothing else like Gladiator II coming out over the holidays, so it may keep turning the turnstiles for those folks seeking breaking bones instead of breaking into song. Hopefully, none of this is giving Russell Crowe ideas about turning the first Gladiator into a musical starring himself, but I wouldn’t put it past him.  

Sadly, as two new films entered, an old standby had to take a seat. Nothing sat more than Red One. With a 59% drop and a $52.8 million ten-day total, it seems like a lot of people will not smell what The Rock is cooking in this movie. Again, it may have a second-life on streamers and annual Holiday movie marathons, but this go-round was the fruitcake someone brings to your party that just sits there untouched. Sure, it tasted great in the 1700’s when the main food taste was gruel, but we have better options now.   

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Wicked: Part One - $112.5 million

#2. Gladiator II - $55 million 

#3. Red One - $52.8 million 

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

‘Red One’ Feels Blue - Week 1

Anytime you can start (well, two weeks late) a Blockbuster Pool with The Rock, you should be in good hands like Allstate. Instead, we might have a case of the butterfingers, and not the ones nobody better lay a finger on. 

Red One debuted with a $32.1 million opening weekend. This may be amazeballs for a film like Violent Night that had a $20 million budget, but for a film reportedly costing… checking notes and picking jaw up off the floor… $250 MILLION, that is a lot of coal in the stocking. Blockbusters typically get about a third of their total box-office gross in the first weekend and that puts Red One on pace for a lackluster $95 million. I hope no one blames this on Lucy Lui!

Besides, if you want to live in the Egg Nog is half-full world, Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle also had an opening in the $30 millions and ended-up as a $400 million megahit. 

Still, that film came-out during a crowded Christmas week release weekend that included a Star Wars movie and it had more time to find its audience. Red One had zero competition this weekend and has Elphaba and Maximus right on its heels. That’s not even mentioning Dwayne Johnson fighting himself the following weekend in Moana 2. 

Heck, at this point Red One might not even make Freeforms' annual 25 Days of Christmas movie schedule. Which, of course, is fine because that just leaves more time for Prep & Landing and Arthur Christmas. That's so tinsel! 

All that said, even if Red One only gets to $95 million, it’s going to take other films to knock it off the Top Five for it not to be here at the end. Can Red One keep its cool all pool long or will it melt as the competition rises? Time will tell. 

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Red One - $32.1 million (don’t forget the .1… it’s very important!)

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out and perpetually doomed to fail 2024 Holiday Blockbuster prognostications. Remember, I’m the guy who last year thought Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce could be as big as Taylor Swift's Eras film. Genius!

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Moana 2 - I can barely even remember what happened in the first Moana as it wasn’t one of my favorites, but it definitely showed How Far It’d Go by drilling that song into our heads for six months straight. For those who did love it, I’m assuming they’ll be more excited about a direct sequel to a film they liked than a prequel to a film that came out 30 years ago (Yeah, I’m talking about you Mufasa!). I have the Disney machine pegged as topping this pool (Kind of like they did with Black Panther and Avatar a couple years ago) and I’m going with Moana 2 as my 1 (because that makes sense) and Mufasa as 2.      

 

#2. Mufasa - I think there are more Lion King fans in the world, as two films and a hit broadway show would attest, yet a completely new prequel/musical seems like more of a slow burn than an immediate hit to me. Like last year’s Wonka or The Greatest Showman, fans have more of a wait and see than “Buying this on Day 1” vibe that Wicked and Moana 2 have. Maybe I’m wrong (never!), but I’m betting on the likely thing versus the maybe thing.        

 

#3. Wicked: Part One - If the biggest musical of the 21st Century isn’t a hit movie I don’t even know what we’re doing with musical movies anymore. The cast seems great, the sets look phenomenal, just take everyone’s money. The only setback could be pushback from people not getting their full experience in one sitting. Waiting till 2025 for Act II is a long, long intermission… but at least I’ll have time to get through the bathroom line!   

 

#4. Gladiator II - The good news is the marketing is making this feel like something people want instead of just a money grab. If Ridley Scott doesn’t mess this up with “origins of life” philosophies like Prometheus, we should be in great shape. Give us some cool battles, Denzel chewing scenery in a toga, and overly dramatic speeches and we’re all in.   

#5. Sonic The Hedgehog 3 - It was basically a choice between this and Red One as my #5. None of the other films even looked like something that could get to $100 million grosses. I went with Sonic as the known franchise quantity. Sonic 2 made $190 million and even if this trends down, a likely $150 million total felt a whole lot better than betting on a Rock Vanity Film. Oh wait, did I say that out loud? Are we allowed to say that yet? Isn’t it in our contract that everyone has to say everything he touches turns to gold? Oh well, I guess I’ll just be zipping on my Zoa energy drinks from Grocer’s Outlet while Prime is flying off the shelves everywhere else. 

Good luck, everyone!