‘Red One’ Feels Blue - Week 1

Anytime you can start (well, two weeks late) a Blockbuster Pool with The Rock, you should be in good hands like Allstate. Instead, we might have a case of the butterfingers, and not the ones nobody better lay a finger on. 

Red One debuted with a $32.1 million opening weekend. This may be amazeballs for a film like Violent Night that had a $20 million budget, but for a film reportedly costing… checking notes and picking jaw up off the floor… $250 MILLION, that is a lot of coal in the stocking. Blockbusters typically get about a third of their total box-office gross in the first weekend and that puts Red One on pace for a lackluster $95 million. I hope no one blames this on Lucy Lui!

Besides, if you want to live in the Egg Nog is half-full world, Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle also had an opening in the $30 millions and ended-up as a $400 million megahit. 

Still, that film came-out during a crowded Christmas week release weekend that included a Star Wars movie and it had more time to find its audience. Red One had zero competition this weekend and has Elphaba and Maximus right on its heels. That’s not even mentioning Dwayne Johnson fighting himself the following weekend in Moana 2. 

Heck, at this point Red One might not even make Freeforms' annual 25 Days of Christmas movie schedule. Which, of course, is fine because that just leaves more time for Prep & Landing and Arthur Christmas. That's so tinsel! 

All that said, even if Red One only gets to $95 million, it’s going to take other films to knock it off the Top Five for it not to be here at the end. Can Red One keep its cool all pool long or will it melt as the competition rises? Time will tell. 

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Red One - $32.1 million (don’t forget the .1… it’s very important!)

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out and perpetually doomed to fail 2024 Holiday Blockbuster prognostications. Remember, I’m the guy who last year thought Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce could be as big as Taylor Swift's Eras film. Genius!

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Moana 2 - I can barely even remember what happened in the first Moana as it wasn’t one of my favorites, but it definitely showed How Far It’d Go by drilling that song into our heads for six months straight. For those who did love it, I’m assuming they’ll be more excited about a direct sequel to a film they liked than a prequel to a film that came out 30 years ago (Yeah, I’m talking about you Mufasa!). I have the Disney machine pegged as topping this pool (Kind of like they did with Black Panther and Avatar a couple years ago) and I’m going with Moana 2 as my 1 (because that makes sense) and Mufasa as 2.      

 

#2. Mufasa - I think there are more Lion King fans in the world, as two films and a hit broadway show would attest, yet a completely new prequel/musical seems like more of a slow burn than an immediate hit to me. Like last year’s Wonka or The Greatest Showman, fans have more of a wait and see than “Buying this on Day 1” vibe that Wicked and Moana 2 have. Maybe I’m wrong (never!), but I’m betting on the likely thing versus the maybe thing.        

 

#3. Wicked: Part One - If the biggest musical of the 21st Century isn’t a hit movie I don’t even know what we’re doing with musical movies anymore. The cast seems great, the sets look phenomenal, just take everyone’s money. The only setback could be pushback from people not getting their full experience in one sitting. Waiting till 2025 for Act II is a long, long intermission… but at least I’ll have time to get through the bathroom line!   

 

#4. Gladiator II - The good news is the marketing is making this feel like something people want instead of just a money grab. If Ridley Scott doesn’t mess this up with “origins of life” philosophies like Prometheus, we should be in great shape. Give us some cool battles, Denzel chewing scenery in a toga, and overly dramatic speeches and we’re all in.   

#5. Sonic The Hedgehog 3 - It was basically a choice between this and Red One as my #5. None of the other films even looked like something that could get to $100 million grosses. I went with Sonic as the known franchise quantity. Sonic 2 made $190 million and even if this trends down, a likely $150 million total felt a whole lot better than betting on a Rock Vanity Film. Oh wait, did I say that out loud? Are we allowed to say that yet? Isn’t it in our contract that everyone has to say everything he touches turns to gold? Oh well, I guess I’ll just be zipping on my Zoa energy drinks from Grocer’s Outlet while Prime is flying off the shelves everywhere else. 

Good luck, everyone!