‘Wakanda Forever’ Lives Up To Its Name - Weeks 1 & 2

It’s ironic that I didn’t run a Holiday Blockbuster Pool last year because I didn’t think there were enough movies to choose from. Ironic because looking back, there were a LOT more movies that at least had potential last year. 

We didn’t know a Matrix reboot would take the blue pill. We didn’t know a Steven Spielberg version of West Side Story would hit a flat note. We didn’t know Jared Leto was going to make us ask “What is he doing?!” every moment he’s on screen in House of Gucci. 

In case you didn’t know, the top five last season would’ve been Spider-Man: Far From Home, Eternals, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Sing 2, and Encanto (and, yes, no one would believe you if you told them Sing 2 was a bigger hit than Encanto, but it was… in theaters). 

At the end of the day, not a terrible list. We could’ve totally done a pool last year. Instead, I’m an idiot, and I waited for the season where there’s two mega films and the rest is like debating between The Menu and The Whale. Check, please!

At least Black Panther: Wakanda Forever lived up to its pedigree. Opening with $180 million, Wakanda Forever had the third highest opening since the pandemic (Behind Spidey’s Far From Home’s $250 million and Dr. Strange 2’s $187 million) and the highest November debut in history. Certainly, the loss of Chadwick Boseman and how the weight of his character’s passing is carried throughout the film gave pause to whether fans would return for a more somber Marvel movie. Especially after the subdued Eternals was met with its “meh” reaction last year. Regardless, moviegoers showed they truly want Wakanda forever. 

In its second weekend, Wakanda Forever fell 63% and earned $67.3 million. Overall, the film has now grossed $288 million in 10 days… well, 10 ½ including Thursday night openings. This is almost mirroring how Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness performed in May. That film ended-up totalling $411.3 million over the summer. Is this an indicator of where Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will finish in the holiday season?

Other Week 2 openings (if you call them that) were The Menu and She Said. These are both smaller films with different stories to tell and neither had delusions of being box-office smashes. Still, The Menu opened with $9 million and if you prefer your dinner parties with some macabre on the side, it’s worth checking out. She Said was much more sedated with a $2.5 million debut.  

 

So, as we all know, there are really only TWO movies that could win this pool this season: the two sequels to two of the most successful movies of all-time. They also both have their question marks. Would people want to see a Black Panther film without Chadwick Boseman and do people really want to see Dances With Wolves with blue people again? (By the way, I get that some people may want to go back to Pandora, but only James Cameron could possibly think people want to go back to wearing 3D glasses in movie theaters again. 2009 was sooo 13 years ago!) Black Panther 2 did its job to start strong and we’ll see Avatar 2 can bring it in December.    

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $288 million

#2. The Menu - $9 million

#3. She Said - $2.5 million

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition (and I guess Week 2 now since I was too busy to get an update out last week), here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out and perpetually doomed to fail 2022 Holiday Blockbuster prognostications. Remember, I’m the guy who thought Top Gun: Maverick would come in 6th last summer. Genius!

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Basically, I went for the sequel that’s much more culturally relevant now than one from 2009. The internet broke when this trailer came out over the summer. That wasn’t the same reaction Avatar 2 received. I totally get how Avatar 2 could cash-in on being that generational reboot (like when parents brought their kids to Jurassic World and Star Wars: The Force Awakens), but just don’t feel the same vibe for this one. Maybe that’s why James Cameron wants all the screenings to be in 3D so he can charge an extra $3 per ticket and raise box-office revenue!   

 

#2. Avatar: The Way of Water - See above comments…     

 

#3. Strange World - A Thanksgiving Disney release should be a lock for the Top 5, but family films have been hit and miss at theaters lately. Even last year’s Encanto didn’t “take off” until it hit streaming on Disney+ at Christmas time. Here’s hoping they’ve figured it out and this is more Big Hero 6 than Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile.  

 

#4. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish - And now we just start throwing pasta at the wall to see what sticks. Shrek and Puss are known brands, even if it’s been forever since their last films. I’ll bet on that over original ideas or films aiming to warm critics' hearts instead of earning film-goers' hard-earned dollars. Also, it looks like the only family film released around Christmas time and that’s when Sing 2 sang last year. Com’on, Puss, make it happen, kitty! 

#5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - That’s right! I’m so mad at this list of nothing that I’m putting a film here that’s only in theaters a week! It’d be a no-brainer of a top five film if it was doing a regular theatrical release. Maybe it can actually make $75 million in one week and I think that’s still more than a Devotion or Babylon or Fableman’s or Whitney Houston bio-pic can do. Could I be wrong? Yeah, the guy that picked the live-action version of Charlotte’s Web to be #1 in 2006 can be wrong. But I’ve got my tickets to Glass Onion for this Wednesday and I’ll go every day my AMC pass will allow me… Let’s do this thing!!! (I’m so screwed)  

Good luck, everyone!

2022 Holiday Blockbuster List

As always, if I forgot some Oscar-bait film that’ll make three bucks and get 14 Golden Globe nominations, sue me. I’m just listing the contenders here (or at least movies that have a wide release). Let’s get on with it!!! 

November 11

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Most people forget that Black Panther 1 was the highest grossing MCU movie ever until Avengers: Endgame. It was even third-all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar until Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Top Gun: Maverick were released. Wow, those $24 Dolby Cinema seats AMC is charging are really adding up! Anyhow, does this sequel have any chance of climbing back to those original heights or is it like when the Spice Girls named their last album “Forever.” Gulp. 

November 18

The Menu

Anna Taylor Joy and Ralph Fiennes star in this “black comedy horror film” (now, that’s not something you read everyday) where the rich elite are on “the menu” for the staff to kill and torture. I’m pretty sure this is what anyone who’s ever been on Hell’s Kitchen has wanted to do with Gordon Ramsey.  

She Said

A biopic about the reporters who uncovered and victims who came forward to bring down former Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein. A very important film, much like the movie Spotlight, yet you may not want to pencil this one in for “date night.”    

November 23

Devotion

Another biopic (tis the season). This one deals with two of the Navy’s most famous fighter pilots during the Korean war. One came from a life of privilege and turned down Harvard to serve his country. Another became the first black aircraft carrier pilot and defended a nation that never treated him as an equal. Has the Top Gun revival gotten filmgoers ready for historical aerial dogfighting?

Strange World

Disney is definitely embracing the strange with their latest animated film. A family of explorers travel to someplace that’s like a mixture of Salvador Dali and 1920’s sci-fi comics. Will this get their “theatrical released” films back on track or have families just learned to wait two months to watch it on Disney+?    

Bones and All

I’m not even sure how to describe this one and I’ve seen the trailer before every horror film in the last three months. Think of it as young love meets vampires who are more like cannibals, and they have to decide whether they can forge a savage-less path together or give in to their deadly impulses. Merry Christmas, everybody!

The Fablemans

Usually saying “A Steven Spielberg” film means something, but after last year’s West Side Story flop, it’s hard to tell anymore. Though not technically a “biopic,” it’s a semi-autobiographical story of young Steven as he grew to love movies as a kid. In this case, the name’s been changed to Sammy Fableman. I mean, look, I know Snoopy’s already taken the name Joe Cool, but com’on, Steven. If you could change your name to anything, Sammy Fableman doesn’t even make the top 100!

(Choose This At Your Own Risk!)

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Yes, the sequel to the Top Five film from 2019, however it only has a one week window in 600 theaters before it debuts on Netflix December 23. Could it make enough in one week to make the Top Five this year? That's another mystery for Detective Benoit Blanc to solve, but I’ll let someone choose the movie if they’d like to.   

December 2

Violent Night

People always debate whether Die Hard is a Christmas movie. What if instead of Nakatomi Tower, a group of thieves did a home invasion at a mansion? And, what if instead of an off-duty cop as our only hope, we have the actual Santa Claus played by Hopper from Stranger Things? Well, then you’d have a Christmas movie!  

December 9

The Whale

The tale (tail?) of a morbidly obese man played by Brendan Fraser trying to reconnect with his teenage daughter was a hit at the Cannes festival. Can Darren Arronofsky’s film sell tickets and not just receive praise from critics? 

December 16

Avatar: The Way of Water

It’s only been 13 YEARS since the last Avatar film, so you better get in line now for the third one opening in 2035. You think Wakanda Forever has pressure, Avatar 1 WAS the highest grossing film of all-time when it came out. What could The Way of Water possibly do for an encore?! James Cameron has spent almost as much time on this as Axl Rose did for the Guns N’ Roses album Chinese Democracy. Let’s hope this turns out better for James than it did for Axl. 

December 21

I Wanna Dance With Somebody

I wanna dance with a biopic that loves me! It will be fascinating to see where this Whitney Houston film goes. As joyous and rapturous as her music and artistry was, so sad and low were the pits she fell into. Do we get both sides? Do we want both sides? How will I know if this film really loves me? 

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

This is just the year of way-delayed sequels. The first Puss in Boots film came out in 2011, meaning ten-year old fans then are pounding White Claws at frat parties now. Don’t get me wrong, we could use some more kids films in theaters… Yet is this the film families will flock too over the holidays?

December 23

Babylon

The latest film from the director of Whiplash and La La Land is set in the Hollywood of the 20’s… The 1920’s, that is. With a who’s who cast that includes Brad Pitt, Maggie Robbie, Tobey Maguire and Jean Smart, the trailer promises spectacle, outlandishness, oh… and an over three-hour runtime. Maybe that’s what caused the fall of Babylon?