‘Wakanda Forever’ Lives Up To Its Name - Weeks 1 & 2

It’s ironic that I didn’t run a Holiday Blockbuster Pool last year because I didn’t think there were enough movies to choose from. Ironic because looking back, there were a LOT more movies that at least had potential last year. 

We didn’t know a Matrix reboot would take the blue pill. We didn’t know a Steven Spielberg version of West Side Story would hit a flat note. We didn’t know Jared Leto was going to make us ask “What is he doing?!” every moment he’s on screen in House of Gucci. 

In case you didn’t know, the top five last season would’ve been Spider-Man: Far From Home, Eternals, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Sing 2, and Encanto (and, yes, no one would believe you if you told them Sing 2 was a bigger hit than Encanto, but it was… in theaters). 

At the end of the day, not a terrible list. We could’ve totally done a pool last year. Instead, I’m an idiot, and I waited for the season where there’s two mega films and the rest is like debating between The Menu and The Whale. Check, please!

At least Black Panther: Wakanda Forever lived up to its pedigree. Opening with $180 million, Wakanda Forever had the third highest opening since the pandemic (Behind Spidey’s Far From Home’s $250 million and Dr. Strange 2’s $187 million) and the highest November debut in history. Certainly, the loss of Chadwick Boseman and how the weight of his character’s passing is carried throughout the film gave pause to whether fans would return for a more somber Marvel movie. Especially after the subdued Eternals was met with its “meh” reaction last year. Regardless, moviegoers showed they truly want Wakanda forever. 

In its second weekend, Wakanda Forever fell 63% and earned $67.3 million. Overall, the film has now grossed $288 million in 10 days… well, 10 ½ including Thursday night openings. This is almost mirroring how Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness performed in May. That film ended-up totalling $411.3 million over the summer. Is this an indicator of where Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will finish in the holiday season?

Other Week 2 openings (if you call them that) were The Menu and She Said. These are both smaller films with different stories to tell and neither had delusions of being box-office smashes. Still, The Menu opened with $9 million and if you prefer your dinner parties with some macabre on the side, it’s worth checking out. She Said was much more sedated with a $2.5 million debut.  

 

So, as we all know, there are really only TWO movies that could win this pool this season: the two sequels to two of the most successful movies of all-time. They also both have their question marks. Would people want to see a Black Panther film without Chadwick Boseman and do people really want to see Dances With Wolves with blue people again? (By the way, I get that some people may want to go back to Pandora, but only James Cameron could possibly think people want to go back to wearing 3D glasses in movie theaters again. 2009 was sooo 13 years ago!) Black Panther 2 did its job to start strong and we’ll see Avatar 2 can bring it in December.    

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $288 million

#2. The Menu - $9 million

#3. She Said - $2.5 million

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition (and I guess Week 2 now since I was too busy to get an update out last week), here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out and perpetually doomed to fail 2022 Holiday Blockbuster prognostications. Remember, I’m the guy who thought Top Gun: Maverick would come in 6th last summer. Genius!

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Basically, I went for the sequel that’s much more culturally relevant now than one from 2009. The internet broke when this trailer came out over the summer. That wasn’t the same reaction Avatar 2 received. I totally get how Avatar 2 could cash-in on being that generational reboot (like when parents brought their kids to Jurassic World and Star Wars: The Force Awakens), but just don’t feel the same vibe for this one. Maybe that’s why James Cameron wants all the screenings to be in 3D so he can charge an extra $3 per ticket and raise box-office revenue!   

 

#2. Avatar: The Way of Water - See above comments…     

 

#3. Strange World - A Thanksgiving Disney release should be a lock for the Top 5, but family films have been hit and miss at theaters lately. Even last year’s Encanto didn’t “take off” until it hit streaming on Disney+ at Christmas time. Here’s hoping they’ve figured it out and this is more Big Hero 6 than Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile.  

 

#4. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish - And now we just start throwing pasta at the wall to see what sticks. Shrek and Puss are known brands, even if it’s been forever since their last films. I’ll bet on that over original ideas or films aiming to warm critics' hearts instead of earning film-goers' hard-earned dollars. Also, it looks like the only family film released around Christmas time and that’s when Sing 2 sang last year. Com’on, Puss, make it happen, kitty! 

#5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - That’s right! I’m so mad at this list of nothing that I’m putting a film here that’s only in theaters a week! It’d be a no-brainer of a top five film if it was doing a regular theatrical release. Maybe it can actually make $75 million in one week and I think that’s still more than a Devotion or Babylon or Fableman’s or Whitney Houston bio-pic can do. Could I be wrong? Yeah, the guy that picked the live-action version of Charlotte’s Web to be #1 in 2006 can be wrong. But I’ve got my tickets to Glass Onion for this Wednesday and I’ll go every day my AMC pass will allow me… Let’s do this thing!!! (I’m so screwed)  

Good luck, everyone!