People Still Hangry for Hunger Games - Week 2

It’s been eight years since Jennifer Lawrence retired her Katniss Everdeen bow for good. The last Hunger Games movie, Mockingjay Part 2,  opened with $102 million. The new prequel didn’t reach the same heights, yet it showed people are still interested with what’s on the menu.

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of the Songbirds and the Snakes debuted with a $44.6 million. Sure, it may seem like a steep drop, but with an all-new cast and a story only the most hardcore stans were familiar with, things could have been a lot worse (BTW, worse is what we’ll talk about when I get to The Marvel’s second week… yowsa!). This film has its own lane for the next few weeks, so if former fans find themselves curious, it might have enough to stay on a Top 5 path. 

Trolls Band Together came together for a $30 million opening. That’s a little less than the original’s $45 million start and you could assume this one will finish with less than that film’s $150 million total. Still, for parents who want to take their kids to the Boy Band Lollapalooza event of the season, this is The Right Stuff for them. They Want it That Way. Backstreet’s Back, Alright?

Thanksgiving came early for horror fans as Eli Roth’s obsession with making a real movie out of a fake trailer came true. Sadly, horror never usually plays a factor in Summer or Holiday Blockbuster Pools. As much as I enjoyed this poultry product, a $10 million slice is all they could plate this weekend. The movie itself could have an annual cult following that wants to watch this every season, but this wasn’t the seasoning most filmgoers wanted on their bird this year. 

Also, Next Goal Wins showed how even warm-hearted, small- budgeted, independent movies don't hold much sway when it comes to Blockbuster Pools as it's $2.5 million start will not make a "win" this year.

Meanwhile, the only film from last week did not only wilt under the new competition. It withered and died before our very eyes. I can only imagine the Disney executive’s blood vessels pop as they were seeing the daily numbers come in and the historic drops for an MCU movie. 

The Marvels dropped a whole, I can’t even believe it, 78%!!! in its second weekend. Again, for new poolers, normal successful films drop around 40-50%. Blockbuster debuts can drop heavier, 50-60%, because so many folks wanted to see it opening weekend. Drops of 70% are historic levels of “literally no one else wanted to see this movie outside of the core opening weekend.” And THIS was an almost 80% drop!!! It was a $10.1 million weekend after a $46 million debut. I can’t even remember any big budgeted film.

The closest major studio film I could find was an 81% drop for Gigli in 2003, yet that film didn’t cost close to the nine-figure budget of The Marvels. The highest budgeted film I could find on the “biggest drop-off list” was this summer’s The Flash which dropped 72.1%. Now, you can drop a lot and still be a massive hit. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 2 dropped 72%, but finished with over $380 million (everyone wanted to see it opening weekend). The Marvels was clearly not that film. 

At this point, I think Disney’s even closer to doing a Thanos snap and restarting the MCU all over again… and at this point, I think a lot of fans agree. 

 

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. The Marvels - $64.9 million

#2. The Hunger Games: TBoS&S - $44.6

#3. Trolls Band Together - $30 million

#4. Thanksgiving - $10 million

#5. Next Goal Wins - $2.5 million

‘The Marvels’ Fails to Amaze - Week 1

The reason why so many Blockbuster Pools start with a Marvel movie is because they generally print money. If they don’t end-up on the top of the Blockbuster Pool of that season, they’re almost always a Top Five. Last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy 3, last fall’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Summer 22’s Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness show that this is still a recent trend, not something pre-Covid. Yet, The Marvels might have the hardest fight of any of them just to make the Top Five and about a 0.0023% chance of being the #1 film overall.

The Marvel’s opened to a $47 million debut that is, yes, the worst MCU opening of all-time. The fact that it’s the sequel to one of the biggest “hits” in the MCU, 2019’s Captain Marvel, makes it even more surprising. That film started with almost $100 more ($153 million opening) only four years ago. Parents filled-up theaters with their daughters and took selfies to go see the first woman-featured MCU film. Now we have three female leads and people acted like it was another Charlie’s Angels reboot.

It feels like sometimes when people talk about “MCU Fatigue,” they act like people are tired of Marvel stories or comic book movies. As a fan, I don’t think fans are “tired” of them… They just want good ones. It’d be the same with any genre. People aren’t tired of sci-fi, thrillers, fantasy, horror, or rom-coms. However, they also don’t want to waste their time with mediocre variations. Guardians 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse made a mint during the Summer Holiday Pool because they were good films people wanted to see more than once. There was “zero” fatigue there.

Can The Marvels find a way back? Sure. Audience Scores were OK, so maybe friends who liked it can convince other “fans” that it’s worthy of their time. Maybe one of the two “did not see that coming” scenes get enough traction that people want to see it on the big screen instead of waiting for a Christmas Day Disney+ drop. If not, this film’s probably heading toward $135 million total which is… checking notes… not great in normal Blockbuster Pools.  

That said, good news: This is not a normal Blockbuster Pool! For all we know, $135 million could win this thing 🙂

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. The Marvels - $47 million

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out and perpetually doomed to fail 2023 Holiday Blockbuster prognostications. Remember, I’m the guy who thought Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery could make the Top Five last year with only one week in theaters. Genius!

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Wonka - That’s right. I’m calling shenanigans right from the start for this year’s Blockbuster Pool. We need a family film. A real family film. A Frozen! A Greatest Showman! A Showgirls (ok, maybe not)! You could’ve heard a pin drop during Disney’s Wish trailer the other day in the theater. Like negative zero reaction. For over 50 years, people have loved (or have the nostalgia to think they love) Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. We can get parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, and the Lyft drivers you pay to take your kids to the theater to go see this movie. All it has to be is good. Just be good. Sentiment and the desire for something new to be worthwhile can make this the event film of the season. And it doesn’t even have to make that much to win. I’m setting my guesstimate at $195 million.      

 

#2. Renaissance - There is no way I think this will be as big as the Taylor Swift movie, but it doesn’t have to be. It has two weeks alone in the theaters to be the buzzing hit that the Era’s tour was in October. That’s two more weeks of buzz than I think the other films will have.      

 

#3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - Just like The Marvels, the first Aquaman film was a smash hit. And just like The Marvels, no one seems excited for this film at all. However, there’s a lot of people like me who are going to see it regardless. I’m only guessing more of them will come to see it with me than The Marvels.  

 

#4. The Marvels - See above. In a world of two comic book movies people really don’t want to see, I think this is the second one. 

#5. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes  - I can’t believe they keep wanting me to type this whole title every time I talk about this film. Since I’m picking it 5th, maybe I won’t have to type it as much as I thought. I’m game to go back to The Capital, yet it feels like most folks don’t even know there is “another” Hunger Games movie coming out. That might be a problem.  

Good luck, everyone!

2023 Holiday Blockbuster List

As always, if I forgot some Oscar-bait film that’ll make three bucks and get 14 Golden Globe nominations, sue me. I’m just listing the contenders here (or at least movies that have a wide release). Let’s get on with it!!! 

November 10

The Marvels

What could be more of a Marvel movie than a Marvel movie actually called The Marvels?! No one questions the questionable quality of the MCU post-Endgame, yet the films still tend to do well. Will the same happen here where we have not one but THREE marvelous heroines? 

November 17

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

It’s a prequel to the blockbuster trilogy of books and quadrilogy of movies of The Hunger Games. It’s a little weird to make a movie that we know can’t end well because things obviously weren’t going well when we started the original series. As long as we can find a way to get Elizabeth Banks as Effie and Prim’s cat to make a cameo, I’m in! 

Next Goal Wins

A Takia Waititi comedy about the biggest losing soccer team in FIFA history. I saw the trailer and couldn’t stop smiling. Can you win an Academy Award for Best Making You Smile Trailer? I know the movie Smile would not have won in that category. 

Thanksgiving

Famed horror director (I’m not going to go with “acclaimed”) Eli Roth brings to life the Thanksgiving movie based on his fake trailer from the Grindhouse movies that Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez made in 2007. I hope this movie is a success only so Michael Myers doesn't have to keep hiding-out for a whole year before killing people on Halloween. A month off seems much more manageable. 

Trolls Band Together

Of all the movies about singing trolls performing cover versions of popular songs, this is now the third of them. Well done, everybody. You did it! 

November 22

Napoleon 

Ridley Scott directs Joaquin Phoenix in the titular role. There’s no truth to the rumor that acclaimed (he deserves it) method actor Joaquin had part of his spine removed to shrink two inches to be the actual height of Napoleon, but mostly because I just made that up. Instead, they just used that new Google Pixel phone doohickey to push him two inches lower than everyone else in every scene. 

Disney’s Wish

The movie’s title provides its own intentions. It’s Disney’s “wish” to have an animated theatrical hit for “the first time in forever.” Ever since Frozen 2 they’ve been “into the unknown.” 

December 1

Godzilla Minus One

No, not an American follow-up to Godzilla vs. Kong. This is the 30th Japanese Godzilla movie. Yes, more movies are in that series than James Bond, Star Wars, and Police Academy. Take a bow, big fella!  

Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce

I used to think concert movies played to mostly empty theaters but then Tay-Tay happened. Can Queen B repeat the magic or will the only five attendees be her, Jay, Blue Ivy and the twins? 

Silent Night 

I thought this was another attempt to make a Violent Night-type movie. Instead, John Woo’s directing a mostly “silent movie” action film about a father avenging his family against a ruthless gang on Christmas Eve. So, you’re telling me there’s not a drunk Santa throwing-up in the first five minutes of this one? 

December 15

Wonka 

We still have yet to get a Charlie and the Great Glass Elevator movie, but we’re now getting a musical prequel to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. This sounds like something those naughty candymakers Prodnose, Slugworth, and Fickelgruber would’ve come up with. Good luck, Timothée Chalamet. I’m glad you’re in the hands of the director of the greatest film of all-time, Paddington 2. 

 

December 22

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Aquaman and the Lost Movie seems to be the more apropos title. This movie was supposed to be released last Holiday Season, had a fan revolt that wanted Amber Heard removed from the flick, and it will officially mark the end of the DCU “SnyderVerse.” But hey, at least AMC Theater fans can finally see Nicole Kidman in a movie and not just before it!

Migration

Illumination Animation has spent more time telling us about their other hit movies (Despicable Me, Minions, The Grinch, Secret Life of Pets) in the trailer for this film than about why we should go see this one. Not a great sign, but animated movies and holiday breaks usually work out just fine. 

December 25

The Boys in the Boat

George Clooney directs (but doesn’t star) in this movie about an American crew team competing in the Berlin Olympic games in 1936. I hope this turns out better than Clooney’s Leatherheads film about football players in the 20’s. 

The Color Purple

It’s a star-studded movie-version of the hit Broadway musical… based on the star-studded movie of the hit book. Will this be a hit like Le Miz or an oops like Dear Evan Hanson?

Ferrari

Michael Mann’s first film since the “blink and you missed it” Blackhat in 2015. Here he tells the story of the Ferrari family in the 50’s as they’re trying to avoid bankruptcy by winning races and becoming the iconic brand they are today. So, it’s like House of Gucci with cars and Ford vs. Ferrari without Ford. Boom!