‘The Marvels’ Fails to Amaze - Week 1

The reason why so many Blockbuster Pools start with a Marvel movie is because they generally print money. If they don’t end-up on the top of the Blockbuster Pool of that season, they’re almost always a Top Five. Last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy 3, last fall’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Summer 22’s Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness show that this is still a recent trend, not something pre-Covid. Yet, The Marvels might have the hardest fight of any of them just to make the Top Five and about a 0.0023% chance of being the #1 film overall.

The Marvel’s opened to a $47 million debut that is, yes, the worst MCU opening of all-time. The fact that it’s the sequel to one of the biggest “hits” in the MCU, 2019’s Captain Marvel, makes it even more surprising. That film started with almost $100 more ($153 million opening) only four years ago. Parents filled-up theaters with their daughters and took selfies to go see the first woman-featured MCU film. Now we have three female leads and people acted like it was another Charlie’s Angels reboot.

It feels like sometimes when people talk about “MCU Fatigue,” they act like people are tired of Marvel stories or comic book movies. As a fan, I don’t think fans are “tired” of them… They just want good ones. It’d be the same with any genre. People aren’t tired of sci-fi, thrillers, fantasy, horror, or rom-coms. However, they also don’t want to waste their time with mediocre variations. Guardians 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse made a mint during the Summer Holiday Pool because they were good films people wanted to see more than once. There was “zero” fatigue there.

Can The Marvels find a way back? Sure. Audience Scores were OK, so maybe friends who liked it can convince other “fans” that it’s worthy of their time. Maybe one of the two “did not see that coming” scenes get enough traction that people want to see it on the big screen instead of waiting for a Christmas Day Disney+ drop. If not, this film’s probably heading toward $135 million total which is… checking notes… not great in normal Blockbuster Pools.  

That said, good news: This is not a normal Blockbuster Pool! For all we know, $135 million could win this thing 🙂

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. The Marvels - $47 million

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out and perpetually doomed to fail 2023 Holiday Blockbuster prognostications. Remember, I’m the guy who thought Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery could make the Top Five last year with only one week in theaters. Genius!

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Wonka - That’s right. I’m calling shenanigans right from the start for this year’s Blockbuster Pool. We need a family film. A real family film. A Frozen! A Greatest Showman! A Showgirls (ok, maybe not)! You could’ve heard a pin drop during Disney’s Wish trailer the other day in the theater. Like negative zero reaction. For over 50 years, people have loved (or have the nostalgia to think they love) Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. We can get parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, and the Lyft drivers you pay to take your kids to the theater to go see this movie. All it has to be is good. Just be good. Sentiment and the desire for something new to be worthwhile can make this the event film of the season. And it doesn’t even have to make that much to win. I’m setting my guesstimate at $195 million.      

 

#2. Renaissance - There is no way I think this will be as big as the Taylor Swift movie, but it doesn’t have to be. It has two weeks alone in the theaters to be the buzzing hit that the Era’s tour was in October. That’s two more weeks of buzz than I think the other films will have.      

 

#3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - Just like The Marvels, the first Aquaman film was a smash hit. And just like The Marvels, no one seems excited for this film at all. However, there’s a lot of people like me who are going to see it regardless. I’m only guessing more of them will come to see it with me than The Marvels.  

 

#4. The Marvels - See above. In a world of two comic book movies people really don’t want to see, I think this is the second one. 

#5. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes  - I can’t believe they keep wanting me to type this whole title every time I talk about this film. Since I’m picking it 5th, maybe I won’t have to type it as much as I thought. I’m game to go back to The Capital, yet it feels like most folks don’t even know there is “another” Hunger Games movie coming out. That might be a problem.  

Good luck, everyone!