2023 Summer Blockbuster Pool - Final Report

Just like after the bomb exploded in Oppenheimer and the audience was left with a “so now what are we still doing here” feeling, that’s kind of how the Summer Blockbuster Pool went after the Barbenheimer explosion in July. There was nothing else to talk about. Turtles, Megs, Turismos? Nope… Oh wait, Nope was last summer :) 

Now that Labor Day has come and gone, it’s time to look back at the films that did, the films that didn’t, and mostly the films that dud. 

The “I Guess That Happened” Section

- Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken became the biggest flop in Dreamworks Animation history. This can be the only explanation for why we still have to deal with Boss Baby. Thanks a lot, Ruby!

- Book Club: The Next Chapter was more like The Final Epilogue. 

- Strays didn’t stray far from “woof!”

- Asteroid City was the second most successful movie based on an impromptu desert town, so that’s something.

- Gran Turismo didn’t have enough save spots to keep going. 

- No Hard Feelings didn’t cause many feelings at all.

- The “SnyderVerse” drugs must be wearing off because Blue Beetle (or The Flash) did nothing to say “Let’s see more of this!”

- Haunted Mansion was like a ghost town in theaters.

-  Meg 2 might have done better if they called it M3gan 2.

The “This Actually Made a Little Money” Section

- Teenage Ninja Turtle Movie: Mutant Mayhem didn’t have the secret of the ooze, but it did alright for itself with a $107 million gross.

The “This Actually Made a Lot of Money” Section

- Insidious: The Red Door was made for $16 million and will end up with almost $200 million worldwide. That’s why you’re seeing 17,000 horror films being released in the next two months, but they don’t all make bank like that. 

- As a non-social media person, Sound of Freedom was one of those films I had to figure out from NPR articles and box-office reports. Regardless, its $182 million total (off a $14.5 million budget) made it the 6th highest grossing film of the season! Yup, more than Indiana Jones and Ethan Hunt. 

The “Disappointed With “Only” $100 Million” Section

- The Flash was as fast as a flush. 

- Fast X thinks they have two more films to go when it feels like audiences have already told them they’re done… Whoops!

- Elemental was the slow and steady that didn’t win the race but got a participation trophy.   

- Transformers: Rise of the Beasts gave Pete Davidson (along with Fast X) two films in this category. Uh, well done?

- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One was the only summer film that was honest by having “Part One” in their title, but maybe that just told people to come back next year.

- So, by most accounts, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny now gives us three Indy movies we’ll skip when rewatching the series. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a heralded franchise. 

And with that, because Monday was Labor Day, it’s time to acknowledge and congratulate the actual Top 5 Films of The 2023 Summer Blockbuster Pool!!!  

#5. The Little Mermaid - $298.1 million

Disney’s live-action remake was good enough under the sea and above for an almost $300 million haul. Maybe the sequel can have Prince Eric grow some flippers and see how likes flopping around for a while. 

#4. Oppenheimer - $310.7 million

While it’s my secret wish to see what it would’ve been like to have Val Kilmer’s character from Real Genius portray the legendary theoretical physicist, I guess we’ll have to take the biopic for as what it was… And what it was a success for filmmakers, theater-owners, and fans of cinema. I guarantee you, most of the people that flocked to this film would’ve never gone to a 3-hour movie about the “father of the atomic bomb” when they were in high school history, but Nolan’s craft to his work makes people want to care.    

 

#3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $359 million

It may have made a few million less than Guardians Vol. 2, yet I think this was the film fans would’ve wanted as the swan song. Everyone gets a chance to shine before wearing out their welcome. Giving the trepidation with the upcoming The Marvels film, it’s hard to know what the next MCU “sure thing” is.  

#2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $381.2 million

One sure thing is the final Spider-Verse movie is going to be a smash because so many people will be flooding to theaters before they even know if it’s good or not. Based on the first two flicks, there’s little reason to doubt this will go down as the greatest animated superhero trilogy of all-time!!! And, yeah, of course, there never has been an animated superhero trilogy before either, but we’re not going to let that get in the way of hyperbole!!! 

#1. Barbie - $612.3 million

Color me pink. I figured this could be a “cute” $150-$175 million movie… and that’s if everything went right! More than everything went right and this became the biggest movie of the year. As a person who loves movies, my favorite thing about this summer of Barbenheimer is that original films about original (and fictional) people brought folks into the theaters. Not everything needs to be the 10th, 17th, or 24th film in a franchise. Trust quality directors and creators to do their thing and usually good things happen. Way to go Greta Gerwig, Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, and especially… Midge and Allan!

It’s a Barbie World; Oppenheimer Maxes IMAX; Mission: Impossible Falls Out; Haunted Mansion Foreclosed - Weeks 11, 12, and 13

While it’s an easy news segment to talk about all the ills of social media, can we at least agree it did some good this last month? Barbenheimer/OppenBarbie became the most talked about movie weekend of the year and it was the kick-in-the-pants this summer season needed after a series of ho-hum openings. 

Barbie blew the Dream House roof off with a $162 million opening weekend. This was the largest opening ever for a non-sequel, remake, or superhero property. It also became the largest debut by a female director (Sacramento’s own, Greta Gerwig!), best opening ever for a toy-property (take that, Transformers!), and the pinkest movie in the history of pink (red and white, take a bow!). 

Another accolade? The biggest “Second Weekend” in Warners Bros. history as the film delivered another $93 million with a remarkably normalized 42% drop. I wasn’t able to see the film until the second weekend and the packed theater still had an energy usually only felt during opening weekends. Suffice to say, Barbie’s nearly already “won” the summer pool after only 10 days. It’s at $351.4 million with zero signs of slowing down. 

Only Christopher Nolan can make a historical biopic a “must-see” summer movie. Oppenheimer, uh, exploded with a $82 million start. Yup, more people were excited to watch a movie about a theoretical physicist than Dom Toretto, Optimus Prime, Indiana Jones, Ethan Hunt, and The Flash. This was an even larger debut than his last historical summer offering, Dunkirk, which started with $50 million on its way to a $189 million total.   

While Oppenheimer hasn’t sold as many tickets as Barbie, the interesting thing is in the price of the Oppenheimer tickets. Many of the seats sold are for the higher-priced IMAX (and even some 70MM screenings), making this a destination movie experience. The IMAX showings were still all full in its second weekend at my local AMC even with seats available at non-IMAX showings. The “filmed in IMAX” hype is working for this film and people are willing to wait to see it on IMAX instead of “let’s just go catch it right now.” Now, would that same strategy work if Encinco Man was filmed in IMAX, probably not. 

Ethan Hunt found his toughest mission was staying relevant after his “last” film seemed like the conclusion to the series. 2018’s Mission: Impossible - Fallout grossed $220 million and felt like a wrap for these characters. Five years later, people didn’t seem to care as much about the Impossible Missions Force. These days folks only want to see Tom Cruise flying planes, not jumping off cliffs trying to catch trains.

Mission: Impossible - Dead Recocking Part One had a five-day opening of $78 million in its first week, yet it had a “dead” second weekend dropping 65% with only $19 million after the BarbenHeimer radioactive cloud destroyed every film in their path. The film currently has $131.9 million and has no chance of being a Top Five film this summer. Given the positive reviews and audience scores, I wouldn’t have pegged this flick to be a low point for the series. That said, this looks to be the lowest performing film in the series since M:I-III. Maybe the message finally self-destructed the audience? 

In the “I didn’t even know this movie was coming out until I saw a cardboard standup at my theater two months ago” category, I present to you Haunted Mansion. Opening with a completely forgettable $24 million, it looks like everyone forgot this movie was coming out. Disney has got to figure out some way to distinguish what’s a Disney+ movie and what’s a theatrical release, because until I saw an “opening in theaters” on that cutout I’d have assumed it was a Disney+ movie… and I guess it will be, just in time for Halloween!

After the Mid-July Surprise of Barbie and Oppenheimer, I do think we’ve got our final five films. It’s just a matter of where they all land. Let’s take a look at where we are now… 

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse - $378.8 million

#2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $359 million

#3. Barbie - $351.4

#4. The Little Mermaid - $296.9 million

#5. Oppenheimer - $174.6 million

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Doldrums - Weeks 9 and 10

There’s a media trope in articles about how “the old guy’s still got it” whenever a celebrated man releases their latest movie, book, album. It could be Martin Scorcese, John Grisham, or Bruce Springsteen. [My personal fav is when the quotes are “It’s his best album in years” when the reality is it’s been years since his last album. It’s not like he’s competing with other people named Springsteen!] Still, even the perkiest of talk-show hosts and podcasters are going to have trouble spinning that spin about Indiana Jones when movie-goers clearly decided he didn’t still have it.  

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opened with a dud of a $60.3 million weekend. Yes, less than Fast X and Transformers 6.1 (the .1 is for  Bumblebee… which actually might be the best of the bunch… go figure!). This was not what the Dr. Jones ordered. His last adventure opened to $100 million 15 years ago. Absence did not make the heart grow fonder in this case. 

That said, maybe there was a chance for a rebound. There was a mid-week holiday coming up. Rest home buses could plan trips for the second weekend. Maybe even a fedora hat fan club convention. Whips, anyone?

Nope. The next weekend had the film falling 55% with a $27 million take on its way to a $122 million 10-day total. A weekend where it couldn’t even hold off the fifth Insidious movie which made $33 million. [I’m a horror fan who liked the first Insidious and even I haven’t seen the other four films… and it’s bigger than Indiana Jones?!] This film might make the bottom of the Top Five. It may pass Transformers or Fast X. However, this was a flick people thought was a $300 million lock. The last Jurassic World dusted-off the original Park cast to the tune of $376 million. They couldn’t even get the original greatest adventurer of all-time past… $150?!

To prepare for Dial of Destiny, the Mrs. and I rewatched the other four Indy films. I was definitely struck this time at just… how bad a professor he was! He’s never at school, he doesn’t grade papers, doesn’t meet with students, and he always “starts” his lessons when there’s 90 seconds left in class and then just tells them to read about the rest in their book after the bell rings. This guy was NOT good at his job. 

The other main news is that the Spider-Verse officially passed the Guardians, leaving us with a new #1 film of the summer. Indy is definitely not going to catch it, but could Tom Cruise, Oppenheimer, or Barbie? Time will tell…

Oh, and the Beasts ended up faster than Fast X. Will they need to rebrand their franchise to The Slow & Slightly Annoyed? 

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse - $357.7 million

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $357.6 million

#3. The Little Mermaid - $289.2 million

#4. Transformers: Rise of the Beats - $146.8 million

#5. Fast X - $145.9 million

“Flash” Flies By; “Elemental” is Leaden; Lost That Loving “Feelings” - Week 7 and 8

It’s a shame that just as the movie seasons are coming back in our post-pandemic world, the current writer and SAG strikes might make them go back to the dark ages. 

You see, in years past, we would frequently have some “show down” weekends where two “big” films open at the same time and only one could reign supreme. Currently, studios are too scared (or don’t have enough big films) to warrant that kind of competition, so they steer clear of each other. If one big-budget movie plants its flag on a certain date, other flicks scurry to find another light. It took till Week 7 before we had our first battle of the season between two nine-digit budgeted films and the result was… maybe they should’ve combined efforts?

The Flash didn’t go by in the blink of an eye. It earned $55 million in its first weekend. While that’s less than Fast X and Transformers, I’m still sort of surprised it did that well. While spin-doctors tried to sell fans that the film was “the greatest comic-book film of all-time,” there was obvious gloom attached to this project. Let alone the “dead man walking” mentality with all of these final DCU films, there’s tons of off-camera issues with The Flash… even more than the obvious “Should this guy be in jail?”  

For example, did you know there were 45 different writers attached to The Flash during its development process?! I mean, based on the constantly changing tone of the film, I’d only have gone with 27. Meanwhile, Gal Gadot has gone from being the best thing in every movie she’s in to only having 10-second cameos in Fast X, The Flash, and Shazam. Time to fire all your agents. Also, Warner Bros. so loves to highlight their own movies and properties so much (this is the company that included characters from It, A Clockwork Orange, and Game of Thrones in the “kid movie” Space Jam 2), that they even threw in a scene from the never filmed movie 90’s movie Superman Lives with Nicolas Cage and a shot of the 80’s Supergirl Helen Slater whose movie currently sits with an 8% on Rotten Tomatoes. Oh yes, fans will be so excited to see the star of The Legend of Billy Jean on the big screen again.  

Well, the buzz (err, whirring) of The Flash didn’t last for long as it dropped almost 73% in its second weekend. It’s currently at $87.5 million and looks like it’ll walk, not run past the $100 million mark before exiting theaters. Maybe Warner Bros. will have time to add in a scene from the unreleased Batgirl movie before it’s sent to Max next month.  

Elemental was unable to turn the Disney animation tide around with a weak $29.6 million debut. Most pundits still think the problem rests with families paying for Disney+ know they can wait to watch the movie at home, but you can watch EVERY MOVIE at home these days after a month or two. People wanted to see Super Mario Bros. and they made it the biggest film of the year. At the end of the day, Disney didn’t convince people they wanted to see fire and water mix.  Good news, though… I’m sure the live-action remake will do way better in 25 years!

I was trying to think of when was the last female-led theatrical-released comedy before writing about No Hard Feelings (btw, you can tell I’m a guy with that much categorizing verbiage as “female-led” and “theatrical-released… it’s like I’m talking about a batter who hits .335 against left-handers in day games, but at night his percentage drops to .317… we spend so much time on nonsense), and I was going to go with last year’s Sandra Bullock flick The Lost City, yet I’d completely forgotten about this year’s 80 For Brady and Book Club 2. Never forget the box-office power of “Oh hey, I know them!” 

Regardless, No Hard Feelings didn’t do much better than 80 For Brady’s opening with a $15 million debut weekend. That’s better than Seth Rogan and Charlize Theron’s Long Shot and some other “just” comedy movies have fared over the past few years (there’s a reason “streaming” companies have been debuting a lot of these types of films), yet this probably won’t give studios more incentive to put comedies back in theaters anytime soon. No hard feelings, J-Law! 

As for the “old timers,” Spider-Man has swung past The Little Mermaid but Guardians 3 may be just beyond his reach. It’s going to be close!

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $352.1 million

#2. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse - $316.7 million

#3. The Little Mermaid - $270.1 million

#4. Fast X - $144.6 million

#5. Transformers: Rise of the Beats - $123.1 million

Spidey Swings; Transformers Fizzles - Week 5 and 6

Two more highly anticipated sequels (well, one high and one you probably need to be high for) were released in theaters over the past weekends. Suffice to say, one was very sticky while the other one made you feel stuck. 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swung into theaters with a $120.7 million debut. That’s about a (checking notes) $85 million improvement from the first film's start. Holy Moley, that’s what you want from a sequel! People actually excited to go back instead of an “I guess I’m supposed to” attitude… Sounds about how I’m feeling about seeing The Flash tomorrow, but I degrees.

“Across” not only blew past the first “Into the Spider-Verse” debut, it’s already passed the original’s total gross in ten days! A second weekend of $55.5 million (off a 54% drop) left $225 million so far in Miles Morales’ web. I may have needed my son to tell me who Metro Boomin was a couple months ago, but even I can figure out this film’s doing pretty well. 

[minor spoiler about the end… skip to the next paragraph if trying to avoid] I wasn’t aware how much of a “Part 1” this film was going to be when seeing it on opening night. Everything starts building toward a big epic conclusion and you’re like “Let’s do this!” and then a “To Be Concluded” hits the screen. A guy in my theater yelled during the silence of our collective gasps: “You can’t just don’t that!” When you make the “third longest” animated film of all-time and people still wanted more, you did something right. Next March can’t get here soon enough!

While one sequel soared over the city, another got stuck in traffic. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts raised $61 million over its first weekend. While this is lower than most of the Transformers debuts (by a lot), it’s about $15 million more than The Last Knight started with in 2017. Improvement!   

Rise of the Beasts did add Michelle Yeoh, Ron Pearlman, and Pete Davidson to the list of famous Transformers voice actors. Now, why haven’t they ever cast Alexa and Siri as Transformer voices? That makes a lot more sense than having humans record artificial voices. Then again, maybe the characters in the movie would all just start treating them like Alexa and Siri saying things like “Rachet, add milk to the shopping list” and “Arcee, what’s the weather like outside?” Nevermind. 

As for the rest, The Little Mermaid just kept swimming but she’s about to be lapped by a spider. The film has hit $229 million high notes.  

If you saw the ads about how Fast X was already available for home streaming after only three weeks in the theater, you don’t need me to tell you much. While Universal still says there’s TWO MORE films coming in this series (and I’m onboard for all of them, don’t get me wrong), Fast X has slipped into neutral with $138 million.

Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has enjoyed cruise control and even had a bigger weekend than Fast X despite opening two weeks earlier. “I am Groot” means $335 million so far and a $350-360 million total still looks in play.

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $335 million

#2. The Little Mermaid - $229 million

#3. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse - $225 million

#4. Fast X - $138 million

#5. Transformers: Rise of the Beats - $61 million

Fast X Stalls; Mermaid Floats - Weeks 3-4

 

The Fast & Furious series has always defied expectations. The first film debuted with a larger gross than the film’s budget. The third film seemed to be sending the series to Direct to DVD Land (back then, they still had DVDs). Instead, the fourth film reset the series to become a legit worldwide franchise. With the end in sight, all the hype was on how Fast X could be the “Infinity War” to the final film’s “Endgame” with Fast 11. Let’s just say Jason Momoa was no Thanos. 

Fast X opened with a $67 million weekend. That was down $3 million from F9: A Fast Saga’s debut two years ago. The feeling was F9’s opening was down from Fate of the Furious (aka Fast 8… why don’t they make these titles simple?!) because theaters had just reopened from Covid restrictions. No such excuses this time. The series is trending down because, well, the series is trending down. If Jason Momoa in a purple genie outfit can’t get people back in the seats, you’re done. 

That said, there are about 8 billion fascinating things in the film. Brie Larson’s fashion style and performance all felt like she thought she was filming Nissan commercials. High-tech prisons that seemed more from Blade Runner 3049 than modern-day military. The clear inspiration from the video game Rocket League where cars play soccer during the Rome scene. The inability for gravity or friction or walls or cars to cause any impediment to said “soccer ball” as it careens toward the Vatican. Trained “Agency” agents are unable to capture any of their intended targets including Jordana Brewster who can’t even make a decent tuna sandwich. No wonder Mr. Nobody needed Dom and his crew the last few films. His people were worthless!

Still, calling Mr. Momoa’s performance “polarizing” is like an insult to both the North and South Pole. To call it over the top is insulting tops. There are no words. He took all of them. I may never know exactly how I feel about his role. I wasn’t bored, but I was sure something. Literally, there was a point where I was like: “Maybe Amber Heard’s not the one we want cut out of Aquaman 2.”    

Coming into Week 4 was The Little Mermaid. Though there were common complaints of “remake fatigue” and, sadly, trolls concerned about the racial background of mythical characters, I was much more leery of the listed 135 minute runtime. Part of the original’s charm was its lack of wasted energy, i.e. it’s 83 minute length! As hand-drawn animation was costly and time-consuming back in the day, there was no time for Zack Snyder-esque 7-hour editions that included the mer-people’s backstory as science mutations gone wrong from Prince Eric’s great-great-great grandmother. Was Disney going to blow this and give the people more backstory about things they never wanted in the first place?

The Little Mermaid opened in a big way over Memorial Day weekend collecting $117.5 million over the four days. It’s almost the exact same opening Aladdin had in 2019 when it earned $116.8 over the same period. That film went on to earn over $355 million and there’s no reason to think this fish can’t swim the same lap. If that holds up, The Little Mermaid has a chance to rule the pool.  

In regards to the length, I actually found the pace to match most of the original’s briskness. The few new songs and scenes didn’t break what wasn’t broken. They didn’t even try to spawn a new Disney+ series about the daughters of Triton, which was refreshing. Maybe Steven Spielberg would’ve had more success with his West Side Story if he’d staged it under the sea? 

Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 did some guarding of its own. Despite opening at a lower total than the other MCU hits in the last two pools, it declined at a smaller rate as well. With blockbuster films, falling 60% or so in the 2nd weekend has become the norm. Meaning, if films fall more than that look for a quick fall, and if films fall less it will be around longer.

Guardians 3 fell 47% in its second week, 47% in its third, and just 35% over the holiday weekend. Rocket Racoon may not have long legs, but this film certainly does! The film has already collected $306 million and $350 could also be in play for this film (along with Mermaid). Can something else come out to challenge these two films or will these be the top films of the summer?

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $306.8 million

#2. The Little Mermaid - $117.5 million

#3. Fast X - $113.5 million

#4. Book Club: The Next Chapter - 16.4 million

#5. n/a

“Guardians Volume 3 Gets Turned Down” - Week 1

What kind of bias would we have if we didn’t have recency bias? The disappointing returns, Rotten Tomato scores, and TwitterVerse reactions to some of the last few Marvel Cinematic Universe movies and TV shows would have you believe the world has said they’ve had enough and they don’t want any more. Yet, every non-Covid summer since 2007 has opened with a Marvel related film and they’ve all performed well. The same’s going to happen this year, too… Right... Right… Um, guys… Hello… Anybody out there?!

The above paragraph may have fit for last year’s Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness or even last fall’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Both had opening weekends near $200 million and finished with totals north of $400 million. Sure, Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania hit a snag in February, but everything will be alright once we get to Chris Pratt and his beloved goofball Guardians franchise. People like them! Oops.

If Quantumania was a snag, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 played like a skipped mix-tape track. Opening with $118.4 million, this was a drop of almost $80 million from the “good” Marvel openings of last year! Even Pratt's last “third” movie Jurassic World: Dominion opened better with $145 million. If this keeps up, James Gunn’s not even going to be allowed to make Scooby Doo movies again. 

Suffice to say, this isn’t the most terrible, worstest thing ever as far as movie box-offices go. Momentum could turn around in the coming weeks, yet a lot of big films have a 2.5 multiplier of their opening weekend for final grosses and that has Guardians topping out around $300 million. That’s a pretty low bar for so many poolers (including this guy!) that predicted it’d be the #1 film of the summer. 

On the bigger “State of the MCU” side, Guardians 3 seemed to be the “surest thing” in the MCU theatrical slate. Known quantity, popular franchise, same cast, etc. Who knows what The Marvels will be? Are people ready for the new Captain America next summer? People still don’t know what Thunderbolts is and Blade was a niche movie series 20 years ago. Guardians was the legit “We all know what this is and we can count on it” film Marvel needed. Now you’ll be able to double-feature it with Quantumania on Disney+ by June. I am Groot, indeed.    

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $118.4 million

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition, here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out, and now already screwed 2023 Summer Movie Pool prognostications. 

My “no thank-you’s” were Transformers (the last one finished at $130 mill), Oppenheimer (just couldn’t see it getting past $200 mill), Barbie (there’s still, like, literally no words for what that film is yet... except, maybe, "pink"), The Flash (literally too many words about that film), Elemental (Disney/Pixar Animation hasn’t had a theatrical hit in years), and Spider-Verse was my hardest pass because it’s probably my most looked-forward to film. I wanted to “will it” past Fast X and M:I, but just couldn’t. 

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - I banked on the rinse, wash, repeat of Strange 2 and Panther 2 that this film could get to those heights and maybe a little more because it would be more re-watchable with the action/comedy shenanigans. After its lackluster opening, my $484 million guestimate is now about as likely as a Groot autobiography audiobook where Vin Diesel just reads “I am Groot” for 327 pages. On second thought, that sounds amazing!    

 

#2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - This was the only film I felt could get that Top Gun: Maverick buzz. If it’s actually good (fingers crossed), could all those 80’s kids make it back to the theaters again and turn this into a juggernaut? I decided it’d only be a regular-sized hit in the $350-$400 million range, but “mega-hit” is in play.       

 

#3. The Little Mermaid - While “mega-hit” could be in play here (as it has a ton of all-ages appeal that led to Beauty and Lion King’s success), I haven’t felt the same level of buzz with this film. Thinking it’ll be more in the Aladdin $300 million range left it here for me.   

 

#4. Fast X - Not happy about this as the Fast films have been trending down since Furious 7. Still, the potential of it righting the ship and trending-up made me think this would have enough to out-run the #5 film. I was penciling this in at around $250 million.    

  

#5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Look, the highest grossing M:I film ever was Fallout and that was $220 million. For this to go crazily higher than that might be a more impossible mission than Maverick had last year. Ok, not really, but you have to talk yourself into things when you’re making your picks because Lord knows no one else is listening :)    

Good luck, everyone!