“Guardians Volume 3 Gets Turned Down” - Week 1

What kind of bias would we have if we didn’t have recency bias? The disappointing returns, Rotten Tomato scores, and TwitterVerse reactions to some of the last few Marvel Cinematic Universe movies and TV shows would have you believe the world has said they’ve had enough and they don’t want any more. Yet, every non-Covid summer since 2007 has opened with a Marvel related film and they’ve all performed well. The same’s going to happen this year, too… Right... Right… Um, guys… Hello… Anybody out there?!

The above paragraph may have fit for last year’s Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness or even last fall’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Both had opening weekends near $200 million and finished with totals north of $400 million. Sure, Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania hit a snag in February, but everything will be alright once we get to Chris Pratt and his beloved goofball Guardians franchise. People like them! Oops.

If Quantumania was a snag, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 played like a skipped mix-tape track. Opening with $118.4 million, this was a drop of almost $80 million from the “good” Marvel openings of last year! Even Pratt's last “third” movie Jurassic World: Dominion opened better with $145 million. If this keeps up, James Gunn’s not even going to be allowed to make Scooby Doo movies again. 

Suffice to say, this isn’t the most terrible, worstest thing ever as far as movie box-offices go. Momentum could turn around in the coming weeks, yet a lot of big films have a 2.5 multiplier of their opening weekend for final grosses and that has Guardians topping out around $300 million. That’s a pretty low bar for so many poolers (including this guy!) that predicted it’d be the #1 film of the summer. 

On the bigger “State of the MCU” side, Guardians 3 seemed to be the “surest thing” in the MCU theatrical slate. Known quantity, popular franchise, same cast, etc. Who knows what The Marvels will be? Are people ready for the new Captain America next summer? People still don’t know what Thunderbolts is and Blade was a niche movie series 20 years ago. Guardians was the legit “We all know what this is and we can count on it” film Marvel needed. Now you’ll be able to double-feature it with Quantumania on Disney+ by June. I am Groot, indeed.    

 

The Top Five If Today Was Labor Day:

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $118.4 million

#2. n/a

#3. n/a

#4. n/a

#5. n/a

 

*****

Extra Bonus Section

 

As per the Week 1 tradition, here are my esteemed, extremely well thought-out, and now already screwed 2023 Summer Movie Pool prognostications. 

My “no thank-you’s” were Transformers (the last one finished at $130 mill), Oppenheimer (just couldn’t see it getting past $200 mill), Barbie (there’s still, like, literally no words for what that film is yet... except, maybe, "pink"), The Flash (literally too many words about that film), Elemental (Disney/Pixar Animation hasn’t had a theatrical hit in years), and Spider-Verse was my hardest pass because it’s probably my most looked-forward to film. I wanted to “will it” past Fast X and M:I, but just couldn’t. 

So here’s what I really think will happen...

#1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - I banked on the rinse, wash, repeat of Strange 2 and Panther 2 that this film could get to those heights and maybe a little more because it would be more re-watchable with the action/comedy shenanigans. After its lackluster opening, my $484 million guestimate is now about as likely as a Groot autobiography audiobook where Vin Diesel just reads “I am Groot” for 327 pages. On second thought, that sounds amazing!    

 

#2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - This was the only film I felt could get that Top Gun: Maverick buzz. If it’s actually good (fingers crossed), could all those 80’s kids make it back to the theaters again and turn this into a juggernaut? I decided it’d only be a regular-sized hit in the $350-$400 million range, but “mega-hit” is in play.       

 

#3. The Little Mermaid - While “mega-hit” could be in play here (as it has a ton of all-ages appeal that led to Beauty and Lion King’s success), I haven’t felt the same level of buzz with this film. Thinking it’ll be more in the Aladdin $300 million range left it here for me.   

 

#4. Fast X - Not happy about this as the Fast films have been trending down since Furious 7. Still, the potential of it righting the ship and trending-up made me think this would have enough to out-run the #5 film. I was penciling this in at around $250 million.    

  

#5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Look, the highest grossing M:I film ever was Fallout and that was $220 million. For this to go crazily higher than that might be a more impossible mission than Maverick had last year. Ok, not really, but you have to talk yourself into things when you’re making your picks because Lord knows no one else is listening :)    

Good luck, everyone!

2023 Summer Blockbuster List

As always, if I forgot a Belizean film about a musical squid or the 27th Exorcist-esque film of the year, no apologies. I’m just listing the contenders here (or at least movies I couldn’t resist saying something about). Let’s get on with it!!! 

*****

May 5

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

One more time, with feeling… Here comes the MCU’s original action/comedy misfits in their final swan song. Will director James Gunn be secretly sabotaging the film before he heads over to manage the DC Films? Is Chris Pratt ten years away from only being known as the voice of Mario with both of his live-action franchises being over? How many takes does Vin Diesel need for each time he says “I am Groot” before he says, “Yeah, that’s the one,” and cracks open a Corona? Dust off that walkman and take us on one last trip! 

May 12

Book Club: The Next Chapter

I have zero problems with septuagenarians being sexually satisfied and living their best life. Why the trailer to this sequel of a movie about seniors being inspired by 50 Shades of Grey was being played before The Super Mario Bros. movie was the conundrum. Is it because kids are the only group besides old people that still read books or we’re just seeing where Anya Taylor-Joy will be in 50 years? 

May 19

Fast X

Imagine a world where they made ten Point Break movies with Keanu Reeves and Patrick Swayze. Would they have ended-up surfing in space and having A-List actors dying to get into their movies? The car version of Point Break is still going strong with Jason Momoa and Brie Larson joining the fray… or is that Aquaman and Captain Marvel? Same difference. 

May 26

The Little Mermaid

Though it may feel like Disney’s live-action musical remakes are a tired idea, Beauty & The Beast and The Lion King both topped $500 million domestically. Even “pre-slap” Will Smith never had a friend like the $350 million Aladdin made. Will The Little Mermaid become Part of Our World or will fans leave this one Under The Sea? Personally, I just want to see who’s cast as the dinglehopper.   

June 2

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The first Spider-Verse movie blew fans and critics away with a $190 million haul, an Oscar for Best Animated Film, and a straight fire soundtrack. If the second comes anywhere close, it could be a very Spidey summer. Let’s hope we get another helping of Spider-Ham! 

June 9

Strays

Will Farrell and Jamie Fox voice foul-mouthed live-action dogs (CGI dogs? Babe-esque animatronic dogs?) getting revenge on Will’s deadbeat owner who abandons him. In a world where it’s been fun to have some quirky things like Violent Night and Cocaine Bear, this seems like something quirky.  

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Speaking of not quirky… Here comes another Transformers movie to bash us over the head with CGI-nonsense and garbley gook dialogue. When even former director Michael Bay has moved on to find more meaningful films, that’s saying something. 

June 16

Elemental

Remember when Pixar movies used to be a big thing at the box-office? After last summer’s super flop Lightyear, Elemental looks to be more in the vein of Inside Out or Up where they are trying to tell a good story in a unique way. Will theater-goers give them a chance or just wait two months till it’s on Disney+? 

 

The Flash

I, uh, just don’t even know what to say here. Sure, people have looked past a lot of celebrity’s shady dealings to just enjoy the products they put out, but more people might know Ezra Miller by his mugshots than his appearance in Justice League at this point. Will fans take the Superman II amnesia kiss so they can just enjoy the film as the DC multiverse extravaganza it’s supposed to be or will they take a pass on this Flash?

June 23

Asteroid City

I usually only put Wes Anderson films on this list to trick the Indie-Centric poolers into thinking this will be the one that finally joins the Top 5 amongst the usual summer dum-dum films. With a cast list that includes this amount of known names though (Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Jeffrey Wright, Tilda Swinton, Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Adrien Brody, Liev Schreiber, Steve Carell, Matt Dillon, Willem Dafoe, Margot Robbie, and Jeff Goldblum)... Ok, you’ve got my attention.

No Hard Feelings

Jennifer Lawrence headlining her first theatrically released film in five years is kind of a big deal. In this comedy she plays a delivery driver answering an ad to date someone’s painfully awkward teenage son. I’m sorry… All you have to do to meet J- Law is to put up an ad on Craigslist?! I love realistic fiction.

June 30

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

I guess the title is better than The Dumpster of Depends. After all the talk of reboots and recasting, Harrison Ford is back at 80 years-old to crack the whip one more time. Hopefully, a new writer and new director will spare us some of the Crystal Skull shenanigans that 15 years later still induce groans. Fingers crossed that Indy goes out better than Han did in Force Awakens. 

July 14

Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning: Part One

Ethan Hunt’s mission, should he choose to accept it, is to actually walk away from the Mission Impossible franchise after Part Two arrives next summer. That’s probably the only mission Tom Cruise will never accept… and why should he? Following Harrison Ford’s example, he can have another 20 years of playing this role before this message self-destructs. 

July 21

Barbie

Outside of guaranteeing Aqua’s classic Barbie Girl song will be trending again (as if it ever should’ve stopped) when this film comes out, I have no idea what to expect. Still, there’s more to work with here than other upcoming Mattel movies like Uno, Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots, and I kid you not, Magic 8-Ball. There’s never been a better time to be alive! 

Oppenheimer

Director Christopher Nolan’s latest about the father of the atomic bomb has a stellar cast and the kind of anticipatory buzz only his films can generate. Could this be another summer hit like Dunkirk in 2017 or a, pun intended, bomb? Also, if they could find a way to work in the Gap Band’s 80’s hit You Dropped the Bomb on Me somewhere into this film, that would be amazing!

July 28

Haunted Mansion

Wait, is Disney now doing live-action remakes of their own crappy live-action movies from 20 years ago? Is this what Bob Iger was brought back to fix?! Oh well, just beware of stretching rooms and hitchhiking ghosts.  

August 4

Meg 2: The Trench

I see. We don’t get a Hobbs & Shaw 2, but we do get a Meg 2. Seems about right.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Ninja Mayhem

Speaking of comebacks, every ten years we seem to get another go-round of everyone’s favorite heroes in a half shell. Sometimes live-action, sometimes animated. This time it’s animated, so look for the live-action reboot in 2033.  

August 18

Blue Beetle

The final Zack Snyder DC universe film everyone is waiting for is… still five months away and it’s called Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. Sadly, the Blue Beetle probably won’t get his just rewards. What should’ve been a fun, light superhero movie like Shazam gets lost in the shuffle. Hopefully, Jamie Reyes and the scarab have a better run in James Gunn’s universe. 

2022 Holiday Blockbuster Pool - Final Report

Sometimes movie pools are exactly what we think they are. It’s like listening to the Beatles and guessing which two will be the more successful solo artists. You know exactly which two it’s going to be, you just aren’t sure in which order. That’s what the 2022 Holiday Blockbuster Pool presented us. 

To 96% of the poolers (you know, there’s always a few Ringo fans), it was a clear 1-2 punch of Wakanda Forever and The Way of Water. It was only a question of which blow would hit the hardest. 

Along the way, however, there were paper tigers, Oscar-baits that no one bit at, and sleepers that never woke up. Yes, this may have been one of the weakest seasons we’ve had during the 20+ years of doing Blockbuster Pools. Case in point, it’s super rare to have a film released in January that would’ve cracked our Top 5 had it been eligible and M3GAN would’ve been #4… Yikes! 

So, let’s thaw-out after these chilly box-office results and celebrate the films that weren’t this season.

The “Available For Streaming” Now Award:

It felt like She Said was available to stream about three minutes after it was released. Likewise, I can neither confirm nor deny, but Devotion may have been available on Paramount+ before Top Gun: Maverick was. 

The “Did This Get Someone Fired” Award: 

Strange World did feel strange as a Disney film and as the second Disney/Pixar film of the year (maybe third if you count the “not release” of Turning Red) that tanked, maybe the Disney CEO was canned for not being able to do the one thing Disney/Pixar has always been able to do… make massive animated hits. 

The “So You Don’t Want To Make $100 million” Award:

Glass Onion was the hit Netflix wanted people streaming on Christmas Day. It probably still would’ve been if they’d played the movie at theaters from Thanksgiving till then and made another nine-figures along the way. Why they said no to free money is a mystery even Benoit Blanc can’t solve. 

The “Hard Pass Oscar Films” Award:

Even Captain Ahab didn’t want to catch The Whale and you didn’t need Cyrus The Great to make Babylon fall this time. 

The “Where Do Broken Hearts Go” Award:

I Wanna Dance With Somebody never found a dance partner and didn’t hit the high notes to become a critical fave. 

 

And with that, because last week was MLK Day, it’s time to acknowledge and congratulate the actual Top 5 Films of The 2022 Holiday Blockbuster Pool!!!  

#5. The Menu - $38.2 million

Sure, why wouldn’t a black comedy/horror story about a deranged prestige chef and his almost equally deranged prestige clientele not be the sleeper holiday hit of the season? With only $400,000 to spare, The Menu was able to cook-up just enough to outpace Disney’s mega-flop Strange World. Kudos to the cast and crew for creating this tasty morsel and even providing a great recipe for a REAL cheeseburger and not some “fancy deconstructed avant bullshit” as they say in the film. In a season with lots of filler, this one hit the spot.    

#4. Violent Night - $49.7 million

I have a group that loves to annually watch Rare Exports (Finland’s favorite Holiday Horror flick). The trailer to Violent Night immediately spoke to our macabre mentality, but since .0000002% (and maybe even a few more zeros) of this country know about Rare Exports, I didn’t know what the appetite would be for such a wack-a-doodle yuletide tale. This “literally” violent mash-up of action-gore and feel-good cheer was Christmas magic. As the Santa from the film would say, “I don’t really get how it works either.” 

 

#3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - $111.9 million

What looked like a “12 Years 2 Late” money-grab turned out to be the animated hit of the season. Fans came for the laughs, yet kept coming back for the unexpected feels. It’s probably sacrilege that a delusional therapy dog is the greatest character in the movie, but sometimes it’s the friends you didn’t know you needed that are your best allies. Still, let’s go out on a high note and sing the opening song in double-time: “Who’s your favorite fearless hero? Puss in Boots, Puss in Boots!”

#2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $450 million

The film was successful at mourning the loss of actor Chadwick Boseman and the character he played, but less so with advancing the normal MCU plotlines. The Ironheart sections played more like a Disney+ series while Namor almost needed his own film as K'uk'ulkan. On a side note, having Lupita Nyong'o go undercover as Mirabel from Encanto and then wearing a bright green, purple and gold jumpsuit makes me think Wakanda learned everything they know about being inconspicuous from 007. Though this film may have been necessary to get to a more straight-ahead Black Panther 3, it still was successful enough to be the biggest superhero hit of the year. “We gon' be alright.”  

#1. Avatar: The Way of Water - $571.7 million

Slow and steady won the race once again for James Cameron. He’s never lost a Holiday Blockbuster Pool. Sure, he’s only had three movies since the pool started in 1997, but he’s triumphed each time. I will say when I found out that Sigourney Weaver played Jake Sully’s daughter, it made perfect sense why she was the only new character that resonated anything… because she’s frickin’ Sigourney Weaver. Not even CGI can mess that up. I will admit to having a lot of déjà vu (all over again) seeing this movie so close to the water scenes from Wakanda Forever. Just imagine if Aquaman 2 had come out this same season as intended?! Still, the movie looked amazing, it was a fun novelty to wear 3D glasses, and I’ll know the next time I can go to the bathroom at any time and I’m not really missing anything. Congrats, to the champ… You earned it!

Babylon Bombs, Puss Purrs, Avatar Awakens - Weeks 7 & 8

 With one week till our final results, I thought I’d save some drama and update you on what happened over the Holidaze Weekends. Then next week will be the final reveal with Knives Out’s Benoit Blanc deducing the Top Five in 30 seconds while the rest of us took weeks to solve the case. That’s why they pay him the big bucks… Even if I don’t think he’s ever been paid for either case that he’s worked on onscreen… Hmm, curious business plan. 

The new films opening over Christmas Weekend may have tried to blame the epic storms for their poor showings, yet epic disinterest seemed to be the predominant forecast. 

The fall of the real Babylon took a lot longer than it did for the film to collapse. Opening with just $3.6 million, this was one of the poorest wide-released performances in a long time. In fact, it’s the 6th worst opening ever. Gulp! Not what a studio who invested $80 million wants to hear. I know Hollywood loves making movies about Hollywood, but this is one that no one seemed to connect with (insert Brad Pitt’s tap dancing here).

Opening barely better was the Whitney Houston pic I Wanna Dance With Somebody. A $4.7 million debut would be mocked more if it wasn’t still a million more than how Babylon performed. Whitney may have been saving all her love for us, yet at this one moment in time, we have nothing, nothing, nothing for her. It’s not right, but it’s ok.

 

Meanwhile, it’s really bizarre how the most relevant thing Antonio Banderas has done in 20 years is voice Puss in Boots. I mean that’s almost the way Mike Meyers has wanted it since his Shrek movies, but Banderas keeps busy and still Puss is what people think about. Saying Zorro or Spy Kids feels like naming your favorite Gin Blossom CD. Regardless, Puss in Boots held up its own bootstraps to a $12.8 million opening. On a side note, it had the highest Rotten Tomatoes score of any of the wide releases over the holiday period. Good kitty!

That left all eyes on Avatar: The Way of Water. Could it outperform Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in its follow-up weeks or would it fade the way most films do? It’s its second weekend, Pandora held well with only a 50% drop and a $63.3 million gross. However, it was in its third weekend that flipped the script and changed the game.   

Avatar 2 gained 6.4% in week three and an even higher $67.4 million total over New Year’s weekend. This leaves the Island of the Blue People only $13 million behind Wakanda with two weeks left in the pool. Queen Shuri thought the blue folks from Namor’s tribe were the ones to watch out for, but it was the ones from space that were the real threat! 

We’ll have the Final Report and results ready for you next week. Here’s where we are for now…

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $438.3 million

#2. Avatar: The Way of Water - $425.5 million

#3. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish - $61.2 million

#4. Violent Night - $47.5 million

#5. Strange World - $36.9 million

Avatar Ends Box-Office Silent Nights - Weeks 4, 5 & 6

Thanks to James Cameron, we knocked off everything on our “Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue” list all in one weekend!

Avatar: The Way of Water swam into theaters last weekend and found a $134 million opening at the bottom of the pool. It was the 5th biggest opening of the year and woke-up movie theaters that had been seeing little excitement beyond Black Panther 2 return viewers. It also got theater owners to break-out those 3D glasses that had been collecting dust since Gravity in 2013 (at least, that’s the last time I remember wearing 3D glasses during a film). 

While the opening itself is not spectacular spectacular (as they’d say in the Moulin Rouge), it may play out exactly as the last two James Cameron-helmed blockbusters. Both Titanic and the first Avatar had modest openings and then they just never stopped making money for weeks on end. Whereas most big debuts drop-off 60% in their second weekend, Titanic actually went up 24% and Avatar 1 only dropped 2% after a $77 million start. Will the same happen this time or have the digitally created wonders of Pandora become passé?  

In what passes as other box-office news, the holly jolly and bloody Violent Night has become a minor hit (and turned a profit off a $20 million budget) to have grossed $35 million over its three weeks in release. That Violent Night would’ve made more money than Strange World this season is very strange indeed. Yay for quirky films finding their audience. 

The final players of the season will be coming out this weekend and we’ll see if Puss in Boots and Babylon have anything to say about the final Top 5 of the season. At this point the creepy robot movie M3GAN has as much chance to crack the Top 5 as anything else and it only has 10 days in the theater before MLK day. There looks to be lots of low hanging fruit there, which is usually where our poolers live: low. 

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $418.9 million

#2. Avatar: The Way of Water - $134.1 million

#3. Violent Night - $35 million

#4. Strange World - $33.8 million

#5. The Menu - $32.1 million

Thanksgiving Movies Treated Like Leftovers - Week 3

 Thanksgiving Weekend has been the bees knees for a lot of Holiday Blockbuster Pool movies. They may not open with the biggest numbers, yet they make a statement. Likewise, without serious competition for a couple weeks, they continue to make money hand over foot. This year, however, audiences stayed away from all the new releases making for empty screenings.

Since the 80’s with Rocky IV, this weekend has cracked out hits like the original Aladdin, Toy Story 1 and 2, A Bug’s Life, Enchanted, Tangled, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Coco, Moana, and Frozen. Wait a second… What do a lot of those films have in common? Hmmm, I wonder… 

So how did Disney’s latest surefire Thanksgiving hit do this year? Strange World opened with $18.9 million. I’m sorry, isn’t that supposed to be $189 million? Nope, the decimal is in the correct place. Disney released an animated movie that couldn’t even muster $4 million a day worth of interest over five days. 

Not going to lie… when I saw the Disney CEO change happening a week before this movie was released, it made me wonder if they knew how poorly this film was going to perform. Next time, it’d be nice if they clued us people in the pool about that before we put that on our list… Grrrr!

Strange World became Disney’s lowest grossing Thanksgiving Break opener since 2002’s Treasure Planet. Now there’s a film you don’t see promoted much on Disney+. Where’s our 20th Anniversary deluxe version of that one?! 

Certainly the pandemic has affected box-office numbers and maybe even more still the family film market. Still, there’s obviously something funky in the Mouse House when Universal’s Sing 2 can gross $162 million last holiday season and nothing else in Disney’s arsenal has come close. In fact, they’ve had three Pixar movies (Soul, Luca, Turning Red) and basically Raya and the Last Dragon go straight to Disney+. Encanto only became a hit on Disney+ last Christmas because the studio ended its disappointing box-office run early. Lightyear was a heavy thud last summer. That’s a lot of movies, a lot of budgets, and not much to show in return. What extra sucks is that at least most of those films were original ideas and I hope this doesn’t mean an about face where the studio just releases a bunch of sequels like Cars 4: Matar’s Revenge and Moana 2: Still Shiny. What can they say except you’re welcome?

Well, any pooler’s one-week stab at Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story is already out. Its 7-day run earned all of $13.3 million. I hope the interest is a lot higher from viewers at home when it starts streaming over Christmas. Otherwise, Netflix may wonder why they paid $225 million for a film where the highest priced item was probably Daniel Craig’s striped pajamas swimsuit.

Devotion didn’t find that same feeling returned from moviegoers. It earned a meager $9 million over the 5-day period. The film was no Midway that got to $56 million in 2019. It was more like May Day.

Bones and All opened wide but found few takers for their Thanksgiving Feast. A $3.6 million weekend suggests that while there may always be room for Jell-O, there may not always be room for cannibals. Even when they look as dreamy as Timothée Chalamet.

As for the continuing films, Black Panther continues to pack-in viewers. Another $63.8 million made Wakanda part of their Thanksgiving Break destinations. Meanwhile, The Menu continues to simmer with another $7.6 million in its 2nd weekend.  

The Top Five If Today Was MLK Day:

#1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $367.5 million

#2. The Menu - $18.9 million

#3. Strange World - $18.8 million

#4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - $13.2 million

#5. Devotion - $9 million